Legislation defining 'Super Intelligence' is submitted to the U.S. Congress within 60 days of the executive order.
An executive order renamed AI within federal agencies and announced draft definition legislation within 60 days of early October 2026. Submission by early December fulfills this.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 63%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 72% and DeepSeek at 22%, 50 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 6 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
The administration can easily draft and transmit proposed statutory language to congressional allies to meet its own explicit 60-day deadline.
- White House-mandated legislative text routinely clears interagency OMB review quickly when tied to high-profile executive orders.
- Lame-duck session timing in late 2026 incentivizes a friendly sponsor to formally introduce the placeholder bill before adjournment.
- A missed deadline would only occur if interagency disputes over technical definitions stall OMB clearance past early December.
72% -
GrokxAI
WH/OMB must finish interagency draft and transmit a bill by ~8 Dec.
- EO already publicly committed to a 60-day transmittal, and White Houses usually meet such short announced windows.
- Novel 'super intelligence' definition still needs OLC/OMB/agency clearance that routinely slips past 60 days.
- A finished OMB circular or leaked bill text by mid-Nov would raise the odds sharply.
68% -
GPTOpenAI
The key is whether the White House treats its announced 60-day legislative draft as a real Hill submission rather than a policy signal.
- The administration controls drafting and transmittal, and early December leaves roughly eight weeks after the October announcement.
- Presidents often send legislative proposals on schedule, but Congress need not introduce or pass them for a submission to occur.
- Odds would rise sharply with an OMB legislative package or named sponsors before Thanksgiving; a shutdown or priority clash would cut them.
63% -
QwenAlibaba
Executive orders set deadlines but Congress has no obligation to receive or act on draft legislation within 60 days.
- The EO says 'draft definition legislation' will be announced within 60 days, but submission to Congress is a distinct step that can slip.
- Historically, executive orders with 60-day deliverables see roughly 60-70% on-time compliance for administrative actions, but formal legislative submissions to Congress…
- A development that would raise this significantly: if the White House pre-drafts the language before the EO is signed, making submission a formality rather than a…
62% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether the administration actually drafts and transmits the bill to Congress within the stated 60-day window.
- Executive orders setting legislative deadlines are often missed or slip past self-imposed timelines due to interagency drafting delays.
- This EO explicitly commits to a 60-day submission, which is a stronger signal than typical vague directives, raising odds above baseline.
- Government shutdown risk, competing priorities, or definitional disputes among agencies could push submission past early December into early 2027.
42% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether the White House actually transmits bill text to Congress, not whether agencies can draft a definition.
- OMB and OSTP must finish interagency clearance of statutory text, which routinely slips past 60-day deadlines even for narrow bills.
- Congress must receive it by roughly Dec 7, 2026; a renamed-agency EO shows political will but no committee sponsor or introduced companion bill yet.
- Base rate for executive-branch draft bills hitting a 60-day submission window is low, maybe 1 in 4; this one is above that only because the EO named the deadline…
22%
6 of 6 models answered · 50 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 8 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.