Louisiana enacts a statewide moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2027.
Amid surging grid demand from data centers, this tracks whether Louisiana enacts a legally binding statewide ban or suspension on new facilities by end of 2027.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 7%.
They broadly agree, 9 points between Grok at 12% and Gemini at 3%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 28%, so the models are 21 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2028, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -21 pts
- Volume
- $73K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 7% against 28%.
What each one said
-
GrokxAI
LA legislature and governor must pass a binding statewide pause on new large DCs by end-2027.
- No bill is pending; 2027 regular session is the last realistic window for enactment.
- Zero US states have imposed a statewide DC moratorium; only scattered county pauses exist, so the base rate is near zero.
- LA is actively recruiting hyperscalers with cheap gas generation, placing this well below even that low base unless a 2027 reliability crisis hits.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Louisiana's political economy is deeply pro-industry; a full moratorium would require a dramatic reversal of the state's development strategy.
- Louisiana has actively courted data center investment with tax incentives (e.g., the Digital Interactive Media and Software tax credit) and Governor Landry's…
- No U.S. state has enacted a statewide data center moratorium to date; even states with stronger environmental or grid-concern coalitions (Virginia, Oregon) have only…
- The one development that would shift this materially upward: a major grid reliability crisis in the MISO South region directly attributed to data center load, combined…
12% -
GPTOpenAI
Louisiana would need its legislature and governor to reverse a current pro-investment posture despite data-center demand growth.
- A binding statewide ban requires passage in the 2027 regular session and Gov. Jeff Landry’s signature, not merely utility delays or local zoning.
- Louisiana has used subsidies and major-load recruitment; statewide data-center moratoria are rare even in grid-constrained states.
- I would raise this sharply if MISO or Louisiana regulators imposed a statewide 100-MW-plus interconnection freeze after reliability failures.
7% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Louisiana's legislature has shown no appetite for a blanket ban, and the 2026 session is already over.
- Louisiana's regular session ended June 1, 2026; the next regular session convenes April 2027, leaving one realistic window before the deadline.
- Base rate for US states enacting outright statewide data center moratoriums is near zero; even moratorium-curious states like Georgia and Virginia have only studied or…
- Louisiana's posture is the opposite: the 2024-25 legislature expanded data center tax exemptions and Entergy is building large-load tariffs to attract hyperscalers.
6% -
GeminiGoogle
Louisiana's conservative leadership prioritizes industrial investment, handling grid strain through utility tariffs rather than bans.
- Governor Jeff Landry and the GOP supermajority actively court massive capital expenditures, making an outright state moratorium toxic.
- The Louisiana Public Service Commission and Entergy manage capacity issues via custom rate riders and tariffs rather than legislative bans.
- No US state has enacted a blanket statewide ban, and only catastrophic grid failures tied explicitly to tech would force such a reversal.
3% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Louisiana is aggressively courting data centers (Meta, etc.), making a statewide ban politically and economically implausible.
- Louisiana's legislature and governor have actively pursued data center investment via tax incentives, the opposite policy direction of a moratorium.
- No state has enacted a true statewide data center moratorium; local pauses exist but statewide bans remain rare and face strong industry/utility lobbying.
- A sudden grid crisis or public backlash severe enough to flip policymakers would be the main thing that could change this.
3%
6 of 6 models answered · 9 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Louisiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by defa
Question sourced from Polymarket on 1 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.