Missouri enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.
Surging AI and cloud infrastructure has sparked debates over energy and land use. Resolves if Missouri enacts a legally binding ban on new data centers.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 5 points between GPT at 7% and Claude at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 26%, so the models are 22 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2028, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -22 pts
- Volume
- $87K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 4% against 26%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on Missouri lawmakers choosing an unusually sweeping statewide ban over targeted grid, water, or incentive rules.
- The General Assembly and governor would need to enact a bill in the 2027 regular session, with no existing Missouri moratorium pipeline evident.
- States facing large-load growth usually use interconnection studies, utility tariffs, zoning, or incentive limits rather than blanket bans.
- I would raise this sharply if MISO reliability findings or a major Missouri project trigger a filed bill covering every new load above 100 MW.
7% -
GrokxAI
Turns on 2027 Missouri legislature passing and the governor signing a binding statewide ban.
- Regular session Jan–May 2027 is the only realistic window; no bills or organized campaigns exist as of Oct 2026.
- No US state has enacted a statewide data-center moratorium despite local pauses in VA/GA; Missouri’s modest pipeline and pro-growth stance sit well below that…
- A sudden grid emergency or high-profile local rejection could shift odds, but neither is visible now.
7% -
QwenAlibaba
No state has enacted a data center moratorium; Missouri's legislature is business-friendly and unlikely to pioneer one.
- Zero states have enacted a data center moratorium as of late 2026; base rate for a novel policy category is near zero in a 15-month window.
- Missouri's GOP supermajority legislature is pro-development and has shown no appetite for restricting infrastructure investment.
- A moratorium would need to clear committee, both chambers, and the governor's desk—no bill has been introduced or signaled as of today.
4% -
GeminiGoogle
Missouri's pro-business Republican legislature favors economic development over sweeping regulatory bans on data centers.
- No US state has enacted a blanket statewide data center moratorium; pushback is handled locally via zoning or utility regulators.
- Missouri lawmakers actively pursue tech and industrial investment, making a statutory ban contrary to legislative supermajorities.
- A catastrophic statewide grid failure directly linked to hyperscaler load before 2027 would be required to shift political consensus.
3% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Missouri's legislature would have to pass a ban in 2027, and no US state has ever done this.
- Missouri's General Assembly meets Jan-May 2027; a moratorium bill would need committee passage, floor votes, and Gov. Kehoe's signature in one session.
- No US state has enacted a statewide data center moratorium; the closest precedents are local (e.g., Memphis, GA county pauses) and failed bills in VA and GA.
- Missouri is actively courting data centers with tax incentives and has a surplus-power pitch, so the political coalition for a ban is thin.
3% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Missouri's GOP-led government actively courts data centers for tax revenue, making a statewide ban extremely unlikely.
- Missouri has passed data center tax incentives, not restrictions, showing legislative appetite runs opposite to a moratorium.
- No state has enacted a true statewide data center moratorium despite nationwide local pushback, so base rate is near zero.
- Would require sudden political reversal in GOP-controlled legislature and governor's signature within 15 months, which lacks any current momentum.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 5 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Missouri enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by defau
Question sourced from Polymarket on 2 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.