Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends a formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.
Qatar frequently acts as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran. Resolution requires Qatar's Prime Minister to attend an in-person senior-level diplomatic negotiating round between the US and Iran.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 20 points between GPT at 27% and Grok at 7%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 33%, so the models are 21 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 31 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -21 pts
- Moved this week
- +9 pts
- Since we asked
- +5 pts
- Volume
- $103K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 12% against 33%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It hinges on whether Qatar is invited into an urgent, formal in-person channel before the year-end cutoff.
- Only 77 days remain, and Washington and Tehran must both send authorized senior officials to a qualifying in-person round.
- Qatar has mediated hostage and de-escalation contacts, but formal US-Iran senior negotiating rounds are infrequent and often indirect.
- A new nuclear, regional-escalation, or detainee crisis prompting Doha-hosted talks would sharply raise the odds.
27% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether a fresh Qatar-hosted US-Iran negotiating round is scheduled and the Qatari PM personally attends before year-end.
- Qatar has hosted multiple rounds of indirect US-Iran talks since 2023, mostly at the working level rather than PM-level, and those stopped after the June 2025…
- No confirmed new US-Iran negotiating round has been scheduled for late 2026, and the remaining window is roughly 11 weeks, with the US election cycle and Iran's nuclear…
- The single development that would most change this is a public announcement of a Qatar-hosted US-Iran diplomatic round with the Qatari PM listed as a participant, which…
19% -
QwenAlibaba
Only 2.5 months remain; formal US-Iran talks require both sides to publicly commit, which maximum-pressure dynamics actively discourage.
- The JCPOA-era talks (2013–15) and 2023 prisoner-swap shuttle diplomacy are the only modern precedents for Qatar-hosted US-Iran engagement; neither produced a single…
- Trump's second-term maximum-pressure posture (snapback sanctions, military posturing) makes Tehran reluctant to enter visible negotiations that could be framed as…
- A rapid escalation crisis (e.g., strike on Iranian nuclear sites followed by de-escalation pressure) is the most plausible trigger that could compress timelines enough…
14% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on US-Iran talks resuming at all with Qatar's PM as formal participant/mediator before year-end.
- US-Iran direct/indirect talks have stalled since mid-2025 strikes and remain frozen with no scheduled resumption as of Oct 2026.
- Qatar's PM has mediated before but usually in facilitator role, not always meeting formal 'senior-level round' bar required here.
- Short ~2.5 month window and no public indication of imminent talks makes this unlikely absent a sudden breakthrough.
10% -
GeminiGoogle
Formal US-Iran negotiations face intense diplomatic freeze, leaving negligible room for direct mediation rounds in 2.5 months.
- A 77-day window is far too short to set up senior-level direct or mediated bilateral talks given current heightened regional warfare.
- Oman typically handles direct JCPOA or prisoner channel talks, while Qatar's primary focus remains Gaza hostage tracks.
- A sudden ceasefire leading to emergency nuclear or regional de-escalation summits in Doha would reverse this baseline.
8% -
GrokxAI
Qatar PM joining an in-person US-Iran senior round in the remaining 77 days.
- No talks are scheduled; US and Iran must first agree to a joint session and Qatar must host it by late December.
- Direct or mediated US-Iran rounds occur rarely even in years of active nuclear talks; shuttle diplomacy is the norm.
- Only an abrupt crisis forcing emergency talks would raise odds, and none is visible now.
7%
6 of 6 models answered · 20 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part
Question sourced from Polymarket on 15 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.