NASA and SpaceX launch Crew-13 on October 1, 2026 and dock with the ISS in under nine hours.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 18% by 6 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

18% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-06.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — Achieving both a rigid launch date after an oxidizer leak and a rare sub-9-hour fast rendezvous requires an improbable alignment. Most Crew Dragon rendezvous trajectories require between 16 and 30 hours, with sub-9-hour profiles used only in rare orbital alignments. Hardware repairs on an oxidizer leak just 48 hours before target leave near-zero margin for standard recertification and static fires. A formal NASA Flight Readiness Review sign-off confirming an ultra-fast docking profile on Oct 1 would shift odds significantly.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 6% — Requires exact launch date match plus fast-rendezvous profile, both unlikely given prior leak delay. Crew-13 already slipped once due to an oxidizer leak, showing schedule fragility close to launch. NASA/SpaceX launches routinely slip days due to weather, technical holds, or range conflicts, making one exact date unlikely. Even if launch occurs on time, many Crew Dragon missions use longer ~24hr rendezvous profiles rather than sub-9hr fast transits.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — A repaired Dragon must clear NASA certification and get an October 1 launch slot with an immediate-rendezvous trajectory. SpaceX must identify and fix the oxidizer leak, then NASA must accept the vehicle and crew risk before the Oct. 1 window. Crew Dragon missions often slip for technical and weather reasons; a two-day recovery from a propulsion-system leak is below-base-rate. An explicit NASA go decision after leak testing by Sept. 30 would sharply raise the odds, while any further scrub ends the claim.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 17% — Oxidizer-leak recertification plus weather must clear for an exact Oct 1 liftoff with a 6-8 h rendezvous. NASA/SpaceX must complete leak isolation, NTO-system recert and range/weather go by 30 Sep; that timeline is shorter than typical Dragon anomaly close-out. Crew Dragon on-time launch rate for a named calendar day is ~25-35 % even without hardware issues; the leak drops this case well below that base. A clean post-repair hot-fire and no further NTO detections by 29 Sep would be the single development that most raises the odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — A specific-day Falcon/Dragon launch after a just-fixed oxidizer leak leaves little margin for any new slip. NASA/SpaceX typically hold ~2 weeks of schedule slack; losing all but days means even minor pad issues push past Oct 1. Docking itself routinely runs well inside nine hours once launched at normal phasing, so timing hinges almost entirely on liftoff occurring exactly then. Recent precedent—Crew-9/Starliner delays and repeated weather scrubs—shows same-week recoveries happen maybe a quarter of the time.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 38% — The oxidizer leak repair timeline is the binding constraint; Dragon turnaround from a propellant leak is rarely under 2 weeks. Oxidizer leaks on Dragon (e.g., Crew-9's 2024 helium leak) required multi-week investigations; a 2-day window from today to Oct 1 is extremely tight. NASA and SpaceX would need to certify the fix, run static checks, and weather must cooperate on the exact day—no slip allowed for this to resolve true. If the leak was minor and already patched before this week, odds rise sharply; any additional anomaly or weather scrub drops this below 15%.

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