NASA astronauts complete a scheduled spacewalk from the International Space Station the week of November 2, 2026.
Astronauts aboard the ISS prepared for an EVA scheduled for the following week. Resolution requires official confirmation that the spacewalk took place.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 67%.
They broadly agree, 17 points between Qwen at 79% and Claude at 62%.
Nothing is settled until 2 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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QwenAlibaba
Scheduled ISS EVAs complete ~85% of the time; the main risk is a suit or systems scrub in the final days.
- ISS EVAs are scrubbed roughly 10-15% of the time once scheduled, usually due to suit anomalies or station power/thermal constraints.
- Context confirms active preparation as of Oct 26, meaning crew training and suit checkout are underway, which historically correlates strongly with execution.
- A last-minute suit issue (like the water-in-helmet class of problems) or a station reboost conflict would be the most likely cause of a slip.
79% -
GeminiGoogle
Execution turns on suit integrity and station operational readiness avoiding last-minute scrubs over the next seven days.
- ISS spacewalks scheduled within a seven-day window face an approximately 20-25% postponement rate from debris or suit anomalies.
- Astronaut suit-up and hatch opening require nominal medical clearances and no urgent Russian or commercial traffic conflicts.
- A reported spacesuit water-leak or an unscheduled orbital reboost before November 2 would immediately postpone the EVA.
74% -
GPTOpenAI
The decisive variable is whether ISS teams clear suit, robotics, weather, and station-priority constraints before the planned EVA window.
- NASA EVAs commonly proceed when crews are already trained and hardware is staged, but late deferrals for suit or station issues are routine.
- NASA flight control, the ISS Program, and the crew must complete final readiness reviews during the week ending November 2.
- A confirmed spacesuit fault, urgent vehicle operation, or orbital-debris avoidance maneuver would most likely push the EVA beyond the deadline.
72% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether the already-scheduled EVA proceeds on time without a scrub or reschedule past Nov 2.
- NASA EVAs are frequently delayed due to hardware checks, suit issues, or station scheduling conflicts, historically slipping 1-2 weeks fairly often.
- The spacewalk being explicitly scheduled for 'the following week' suggests planning is advanced, raising likelihood of execution within the window.
- A suit anomaly, medical issue, or unexpected ISS operational problem would be the main thing pushing this past Nov 2.
62% -
GrokxAI
Whether the already-prepped ISS EVA flies on its Nov 2 week slot or slips.
- NASA/Roscosmos must green-light the EVA by ~2 Nov after suit/ops checks; delays of days-weeks are routine.
- Base rate ~4-8 ISS EVAs/yr with frequent slips (suits, solar weather, timeline); this sits slightly above because prep is already done.
- A suit anomaly or high solar activity this week would drop it below 40.
62% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether the already-scheduled EVA survives weather, hardware, and ISS scheduling slips in the next seven days.
- NASA has publicly scheduled this EVA for the week of Nov 2, and ISS EVAs historically launch on schedule roughly 60-70% of the time.
- The main failure modes are a suit/airlock issue, a debris or leak alarm, or a late re-plan; each has caused slips within a week before.
- Official confirmation typically comes via NASA's ISS blog within hours of the EVA, so resolution is straightforward once it occurs.
62%
6 of 6 models answered · 17 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 26 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.