NASA awards Boeing's Starliner new missions following ongoing post-flight discussions.
NASA is currently in talks to assign additional missions to Boeing's Starliner spacecraft. Verification will occur via an official NASA contract award or mission announcement.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans no: the median is 45%.
They do not agree: Qwen puts it at 62% and DeepSeek at 22%, 40 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 25 Sept 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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QwenAlibaba
NASA's political and safety incentives to maintain two crew vehicles vs. Starliner's unresolved technical failures pull in opposite directions.
- NASA has repeatedly stated it wants two commercial crew providers; the 2024 Starliner crewed flight failure forced Boeing to return uncrewed, but NASA hasn't formally…
- Boeing must clear certification of the service module propulsion system and parachute issues before any new crewed mission; as of mid-2025 these remain unresolved but…
- Historically NASA has extended troubled programs (SLS, Orion) rather than cancelling them due to congressional and industrial-base pressure; a contract modification or…
62% -
GPTOpenAI
This hinges on whether Starliner completes a safe return-to-flight before NASA needs to lock in ISS crew rotations.
- NASA and Boeing must close post-flight safety issues and fly an acceptable crewed mission before a new task order is credible.
- Commercial Crew awards have been extended when redundancy is needed, but Starliner's 2024 thruster and helium problems lower the usual renewal rate.
- A successful 2026–27 operational flight, or a SpaceX capacity disruption, would materially raise the odds of a NASA award.
57% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether NASA finalizes a Starliner crew rotation slot before Sept 2027 despite ongoing thruster/valve fixes.
- NASA has publicly stated intent to keep Boeing as a second crew provider under CCP, favoring continuity over base-rate churn.
- Starliner's 2024 crewed test flight anomalies (thruster issues, helium leaks) delayed certification, and fixes must be validated before new missions are awarded.
- A formal contract/mission award requires NASA-Boeing agreement on pricing and technical readiness, which has slipped multiple times already, so 12 months is a real risk…
52% -
GrokxAI
NASA recertifies Starliner and assigns remaining CCP flights after 2024 CFT thruster failures.
- Boeing must close all CFT anomalies and NASA must recertify by mid-2027 for any crew assignment.
- Original 2014 CCP contract already funds six Starliner missions, so ‘award’ is only a task-order, not a new procurement.
- Dual-provider policy historically favors continuation, yet CFT delays and SpaceX cadence put this case well below that base rate.
38% -
GeminiGoogle
NASA will not award new flights beyond the original six CCtCap missions until Starliner certifies and flies successfully.
- Boeing already holds six operational crew rotation flights under CCtCap, leaving little incentive for NASA to expand orders early.
- With the ISS slated to retire around 2030, remaining rotation slots are heavily constrained and favor proven SpaceX Crew Dragon.
- A formal contract addition requires resolving thruster anomalies, crew flight recertification, and Commercial LEO destination buy-in.
27% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Starliner must first fly a crewed certification mission; NASA won't award new missions before that clears.
- Starliner's Crew Flight Test left NASA and Boeing with thruster and helium leak issues; a crewed certification flight is still pending as of late 2026.
- NASA's Commercial Crew contracts already cover six operational missions to Boeing; new awards require certification plus ISS demand through 2030.
- Base rate for a grounded vehicle getting new mission awards within a year of unresolved anomalies is low; only a clean certification flight changes this.
22%
6 of 6 models answered · 40 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 25 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.