NASA's Crew-13 launches and docks on October 1, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 61% by 8 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

61% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-08.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — Success hinges on Florida range weather and standard same-day orbital rendezvous clearance today. Crew launches cleared on launch day face roughly 15-20% scrub odds from late weather or technical holdouts. Same-day docking requires nominal Falcon 9 orbital insertion and flawless Dragon rendezvous sequencing. A single pad abort, weather violation, or propulsion anomaly pushes docking to Oct. 2 or later.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Whether launch slips off the exact Oct 1 date due to weather, technical, or station traffic issues. NASA/SpaceX crewed launches frequently slip a day or more due to weather at the Cape or technical holds, historically happening in roughly half of scheduled crew… Even if launch occurs on Oct 1, docking must also occur same-day per the resolution criteria, adding a second point of failure. A scrub pushing launch to Oct 2 or later, common with Falcon 9 crew missions, would resolve this negatively despite eventual success.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — Same-day ISS crew launches often slip at the final weather, vehicle, and station-traffic gates. NASA and SpaceX must complete the final launch readiness review, with acceptable weather and Falcon 9/Dragon performance today. Crew missions commonly launch within days of target, but exact-date success is reduced by weather, technical holds, and ISS operations. A clean countdown through fueling and no ISS traffic conflict would sharply raise the odds; a scrub makes Oct. 1 impossible.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 58% — Whether the Oct 1 launch window actually opens and Dragon reaches ISS before UTC midnight. NASA/SpaceX already gave a go, so remaining gates are weather, range, and last-minute vehicle holds on the pad. Falcon 9 crewed first-attempt success historically sits near 55-65%; same-day docking is the planned 6-15 h profile if they lift off in the early window. A late-day scrub or hold past the docking cutoff would flip the outcome even if they fly on the 2nd.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 55% — Both a same-day liftoff and docking must happen on the exact date, and weather or a scrub slips it. NASA and SpaceX have cleared Crew-13 for an Oct. 1 liftoff with same-day docking, so hardware and crew are go. Weather at LC-39A and abort-weather along the ascent corridor are the main scrub drivers; a single violation pushes launch past Oct. 1. Crew Dragon same-day dockings are routine, but the resolution requires both events on the exact date, and Falcon 9 launches slip on weather roughly a third of the time.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — Same-day launch-and-dock requires zero scrub, zero hold, and a clean approach—any single anomaly pushes it off Oct 1. Crew Dragon missions scrub or slip at roughly a 30-40% rate on first attempt; weather, range, or vehicle issues are the usual culprits. Docking on the same day as launch has been the norm for Crew Dragon (Crew-7 through Crew-12 all docked same-day), so if liftoff happens Oct 1, docking almost certainly… The main risk is a scrub to Oct 2 or later; a 24-hour weather or technical delay is the single most likely outcome that flips this to NO.

NASA's Crew-13 launches and docks on October 1, 2026.

SpaceX completes three orbital launches within a 13-hour window on October 1, 2026.

Weather conditions permit the launch of NASA's Crew-13 mission on October 1, 2026.

NASA and SpaceX launch Crew-13 on October 1, 2026 and dock with the ISS in under nine hours.

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