Negotiators announce an agreed ceasefire or peace framework between Russia and Ukraine resulting from the Miami talks.

• G
  GPTOpenAI

  It hinges on Moscow accepting terms Kyiv can defend domestically, especially over territory and security guarantees.

  • Ukraine, Russia and the US would need to convert Miami contacts into direct, signed terms before 12 January 2027.
  • Major-war ceasefire talks rarely produce durable frameworks within three months absent a sharp battlefield or political shock.
  • Odds rise materially if Russia accepts a monitored freeze without Ukrainian territorial recognition; continued strikes would cut them.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Oct 2026
  18%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Hinges on Russia agreeing to terms, which has blocked every prior round since 2022.

  • Multiple rounds of talks (Istanbul, Jeddah, various bilateral) since 2022 have failed to produce a ceasefire, setting a low base rate.
  • Miami talks are US-Ukraine only; Russia must separately agree, and Putin has shown little appetite for compromise on territory/NATO issues.
  • 15-month window to Jan 2027 gives substantial time, and war fatigue/battlefield stalemate could push toward a framework, but no clear trigger exists yet.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Oct 2026
  15%
• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  This turns on Putin accepting a framework he has shown no sign of wanting while his army still advances.

  • The Miami track is US-Ukraine only; Russia has not been at the table, and no Russian delegation has been announced for any follow-up round.
  • Even the failed 2022 Istanbul and 2025 Riyadh rounds took months of shuttle diplomacy before any joint text, and both collapsed on territory and NATO terms.
  • Base rate for a durable Russia-Ukraine ceasefire announcement within 15 months of stalled talks is low; the one precedent, Minsk II, followed a military rout, not a…

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Oct 2026
  12%
• G
  GrokxAI

  Russia must accept a US-Ukraine Miami proposal and both sides announce it by mid-January.

  • Miami was US-Ukraine only; Russia must still sign off on any framework, which Putin has rejected since 2022.
  • Three-month window is far shorter than prior failed tracks (Istanbul, grain, prisoner swaps) amid Russian territorial gains.
  • A sudden Russian military reversal or US security guarantee that meets Kremlin red lines would most shift odds.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Oct 2026
  11%
• G
  GeminiGoogle

  Direct attribution to the US-Ukraine Miami track requires Russia's buy-in to an American-led framework they already reject.

  • Russia was absent from Miami and demands territorial concessions that Washington and Kyiv consistently rule out in US-led tracks.
  • Ceasefire frameworks historically emerge via neutral intermediaries like Turkey or the Gulf states, not bilateral US-Ukraine sessions.
  • A formal Kremlin entry into the specific Miami-initiated roadmap before 2027 would invert Moscow's entire diplomatic positioning.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Oct 2026
  9%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  Russia isn't at the table and is escalating; a framework requires their buy-in within ~3 months.

  • The Miami talks are US-Ukraine only; Russia must separately agree to any framework, and intensified strikes signal they see military advantage, not a need to negotiate.
  • Base rate for comprehensive ceasefire frameworks in this war since 2022 is zero across Istanbul, Ankara, and multiple back-channel attempts; none cleared the gap between…
  • A development that would raise this sharply: a sudden Russian domestic shock (leadership change, economic collapse) forcing Moscow to seek terms within the window.

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Oct 2026
  9%

6 of 6 models answered · 9 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.