Oklahoma enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.
Surging electricity demand has prompted backlash against data centers. Oklahoma must pass a law or constitutional amendment halting new approvals.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 6%.
They broadly agree, 7 points between Grok at 9% and Claude at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 26%, so the models are 20 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2028, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -20 pts
- Volume
- $214K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 6% against 26%.
What each one said
-
GrokxAI
Turns on 2027 OK legislature passing a binding statewide halt on new large DCs amid grid strain.
- OK Legislature must pass and governor sign in 2027 session (Feb–May) or a special session; constitutional route needs voters too.
- No US state has enacted a true statewide DC moratorium; OK’s energy-export, pro-business record sits well below that already-low base.
- A major reliability crisis or bipartisan local revolt could flip it, but jobs/tax-incentive lobbies make even a 100 MW cap unlikely.
9% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether grid strain becomes acute enough for Oklahoma’s pro-development legislature to override its economic-development stance.
- Oklahoma’s Legislature and governor would need to enact a broad ban in the 2027 regular session, or convene a special session, before Dec. 31, 2027.
- Statewide data-center moratoria are rare; states more often use utility interconnection rules, local zoning, or incentive limits than blanket bans.
- I would raise this sharply if SPP/Oklahoma utilities impose queue restrictions after reliability shortfalls or a major data-center backlash.
7% -
QwenAlibaba
Oklahoma is a pro-energy, pro-business state with no meaningful anti-data-center coalition in its legislature.
- Oklahoma's legislature is supermajority Republican with a strong pro-business, pro-energy stance; no serious data center moratorium bill has been introduced or gained…
- States that have considered moratoriums (e.g., Virginia localities, some Irish/EU jurisdictions) face acute grid strain; Oklahoma has abundant natural gas generation and…
- A statewide moratorium would require passage through both chambers and the governor's signature (or a constitutional amendment via petition), and no organized effort…
7% -
GeminiGoogle
Oklahoma's GOP supermajority prioritizes business recruitment and energy growth over blunt statewide building bans.
- The legislature prefers curtailment tariffs or clawing back tax subsidies over outright statewide construction moratoria.
- No US state has enacted a blanket statewide data center ban; local municipal pauses absorb localized grid pushback instead.
- A catastrophic SPP grid failure tied specifically to tech loads during a winter storm is the only plausible trigger.
4% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
No US state has ever enacted a statewide data center moratorium, and Oklahoma's legislature is among the least likely to start.
- Oklahoma's legislature meets Feb-May 2027; a bill would need committee clearance, floor votes, and Gov. Stitt's signature, and Stitt has courted data center investment.
- Base rate is zero: no state has passed a statewide moratorium, only local ones (e.g., Memphis-area, Loudoun County pauses) and tax-incentive reviews like Georgia's 2024…
- Oklahoma's grid operator SPP and utilities are actively adding capacity for data centers, and the state's GOP supermajority has backed incentives rather than bans.
4% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Oklahoma's pro-business, pro-energy politics make a statewide data center moratorium almost unthinkable by 2027.
- Oklahoma actively courts data centers for economic development; GOP legislature/governor have shown no moratorium appetite.
- No comparable US state has enacted a full statewide data center moratorium, making this a near-unprecedented policy move.
- Only a sudden grid crisis or major political shift before 2028 could change this trajectory, and no such signs exist now.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 7 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by defau
Question sourced from Polymarket on 2 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.