OpenAI completes an initial public offering by December 31, 2026.
OpenAI continues its restructuring toward a for-profit model. Note the original question asked if it would NOT IPO, so this tracks whether it successfully IPOs.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 11 points between Grok at 14% and Claude at 3%.
Traders risking real money on Polymarket land in the same place, at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- 0 pts
- Moved this week
- -1 pts
- Since we asked
- -2 pts
- Volume
- $837K
The panel and the market agree almost exactly — 4% against 4%.
What each one said
-
GrokxAI
For-profit conversion still incomplete; mega-IPO can't close in remaining ~3 months.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202614% -
GPTOpenAI
IPO filings, roadshow, pricing and listing rarely compress into the remaining three-and-a-half months.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 20267% -
GeminiGoogle
With under 4 months left in 2026, restructuring complexity and lack of an active IPO process make 2026 unlikely.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Restructuring still ongoing; no confirmed IPO filing/timeline as of Sept 2026; IPOs take long lead time.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
No SEC S-1 filed; 3.5 months left; OpenAI still nonprofit-controlled and IPO prep typically takes 6-12 months.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 11 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.