Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain by December 31, 2026.
Pedro Sánchez faces ongoing domestic political and coalition pressures. The statement resolves true if he ceases to hold the office or announces his resignation before the end of 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 27 points between Claude at 35% and Gemini at 8%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 30%, so the models are 18 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -18 pts
- Moved this week
- +17 pts
- Volume
- $309K
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 12% against 30%.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether fragile coalition, corruption scandals, and budget impasse force snap elections or a no-confidence vote before 2027.
- Sánchez has survived multiple no-confidence motions and scandals since 2018, showing resilience despite minority government fragility.
- Ongoing corruption probes near his family/PSOE, Catalan/Basque coalition partner defections, and failed budgets raise real resignation/election risk in 2026.
- No confirmed resignation date or successful no-confidence vote exists yet; absent a concrete trigger, incumbents in minority govs often limp on longer than expected.
35% -
QwenAlibaba
Sánchez survived his 2024 crisis and holds a fragile but functional coalition; early exit requires a snap election loss or coalition collapse.
- Sánchez's PSOE-Sumar coalition has survived multiple scandals (Begoña Gómez, Ábalos/Koldo) without losing a confidence vote, showing resilience.
- A snap election or successful no-confidence motion would be needed; PP+Vox lack an absolute majority without regional partners who currently back Sánchez.
- Base rate for Spanish PMs completing a full term is high (~70%+); Sánchez has already survived 2+ years of intense pressure, reducing near-term exit probability.
22% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Only a coalition collapse or resignation announcement in the next 87 days removes Sánchez.
- Sánchez controls the timing; no election is due before mid-2027, and PSOE has survived prior Junts and ERC brinkmanship.
- His minority coalition has repeatedly passed budgets by one or two votes, so a failed 2027 budget is the realistic trigger, not a 2026 exit.
- Base rate for a sitting Spanish PM leaving mid-term without an election is low; the one development that would change my mind is Junts formally withdrawing support this…
12% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether Sánchez’s coalition loses a decisive parliamentary vote or he calls an early election in the next 87 days.
- Spain’s next scheduled general election is not due until 2027, so routine electoral turnover is unlikely before year-end.
- Removal requires Sánchez to resign, lose a constructive no-confidence vote, or be displaced after an early election; all need rapid political action.
- Coalition strain raises the tail risk, but Spain’s constructive-vote rule has historically made midterm ousters difficult; a budget collapse would change this.
11% -
GeminiGoogle
With under three months left in 2026, forcing out Sánchez requires a sudden coalition rupture or no-confidence vote that has no time to materialize.
- A formal vote of no confidence under Article 113 requires an absolute majority (176 seats) behind a single candidate, which PP and Vox cannot assemble with Junts.
- Sánchez can govern on rolled-over budgets and has repeatedly demonstrated resilience through judicial and political crises without resigning voluntarily.
- The primary risk is a catastrophic judicial indictment directly targeting him personally, but legal processes in Spain move too slowly to force an exit by year-end.
8% -
GrokxAI
A coalition collapse or indictment forcing resignation in the remaining 87 days.
- Spain’s next election is not due until 2027 and a no-confidence motion needs 176 votes Sánchez’s partners still supply.
- Historic mid-term Spanish PM exits outside elections or lost confidence votes are essentially zero.
- Only a sudden ERC/Junts walkout or a Begoña/Koldo criminal charge would change the outlook.
8%
6 of 6 models answered · 27 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 5 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.