Poland's AI Act provisions scheduled for 28 October 2026 commence on that date.
Poland set a major commencement date for its national AI Act on 28 October 2026. The milestone tests whether implementation begins on schedule without legislative delay.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 86%.
They broadly agree, 21 points between Gemini at 91% and Claude at 70%.
Nothing is settled until 2 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
With only two days until scheduled entry into force, missing the target requires emergency legislative intervention that has not surfaced.
- Postponing a statutory commencement date in Poland requires an enacted amending law published in Dziennik Ustaw before the deadline.
- Parliament has not passed an eleventh-hour delay, leaving automatic entry into force on 28 October overwhelmingly likely.
- The remaining risk is an unnotified retroactive suspension or sudden decree, which historically occurs in fewer than 10% of such deadlines.
91% -
GrokxAI
Two days out, only a last-minute Sejm/Senate or Council of Ministers delay can stop 28 Oct commencement.
- Polish AI Act commencement is already gazetted for 28 Oct 2026; no bill to postpone has been tabled.
- Base rate for EU-member national implementing acts slipping in the final 72 h is low (~8-10 %).
- A sudden Council of Ministers resolution or Sejm vote this week would be the only thing that flips it.
91% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Poland's AI Act commencement hinges on whether the Sejm passes the enabling act before its term ends and the President signs it in time.
- Poland's AI Act implementation requires a national enabling statute; the Sejm must pass it and the President sign before 28 October 2026.
- Poland has a strong record of meeting EU digital deadlines, but the current Sejm's term ends in November 2027, leaving ample time.
- The main risk is a last-minute constitutional challenge or presidential veto; any such move would push commencement past the resolution date.
88% -
GPTOpenAI
This chiefly turns on whether Poland publishes or formally changes the already-scheduled commencement before 28 October.
- The government and Sejm would need an urgent amendment or postponement in the next two days, leaving little procedural runway.
- Polish implementing laws commonly use staged effective dates, and last-minute deferrals are less frequent once a date is enacted.
- A published amendment, Constitutional Tribunal intervention, or an official government notice of non-commencement would sharply lower the odds.
84% -
QwenAlibaba
Two days out, the key question is whether the act was published in Dziennik Ustaw with sufficient vacatio legis.
- Polish law requires publication in the Journal of Laws before commencement; if the act wasn't gazetted with adequate lead time, the date slips automatically.
- The Tusk government has faced legislative bottlenecks on digital/tech files, and national AI implementing measures competed with higher-priority judicial and media…
- Base rate for EU member states hitting self-set AI implementation deadlines is moderate—several (e.g., Czechia, Belgium) have slipped months on analogous transposition…
74% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether Poland's parliament finalizes implementing legislation and designated market surveillance authority in time.
- EU AI Act obligations are binding regardless of national implementing law, creating strong pressure to meet the date.
- Many EU member states have lagged on national AI Act implementing legislation and authority designation, a pattern that could delay Poland too.
- If Polish lawmakers have already passed the national act with this date fixed in statute, commencement is likely to proceed absent a late repeal.
70%
6 of 6 models answered · 21 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 26 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.