◆ ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 1 WEEK HORIZON RESOLVES 2 NOV 2026 · in 6d

Poland's AI Act provisions scheduled for 28 October 2026 commence on that date.

Poland set a major commencement date for its national AI Act on 28 October 2026. The milestone tests whether implementation begins on schedule without legislative delay.

Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 86%.

They broadly agree, 21 points between Gemini at 91% and Claude at 70%.

Nothing is settled until 2 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • GeminiGoogle

    With only two days until scheduled entry into force, missing the target requires emergency legislative intervention that has not surfaced.

    • Postponing a statutory commencement date in Poland requires an enacted amending law published in Dziennik Ustaw before the deadline.
    • Parliament has not passed an eleventh-hour delay, leaving automatic entry into force on 28 October overwhelmingly likely.
    • The remaining risk is an unnotified retroactive suspension or sudden decree, which historically occurs in fewer than 10% of such deadlines.
    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 26 Oct 2026
    91%
  • GrokxAI

    Two days out, only a last-minute Sejm/Senate or Council of Ministers delay can stop 28 Oct commencement.

    • Polish AI Act commencement is already gazetted for 28 Oct 2026; no bill to postpone has been tabled.
    • Base rate for EU-member national implementing acts slipping in the final 72 h is low (~8-10 %).
    • A sudden Council of Ministers resolution or Sejm vote this week would be the only thing that flips it.
    x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 26 Oct 2026
    91%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    Poland's AI Act commencement hinges on whether the Sejm passes the enabling act before its term ends and the President signs it in time.

    • Poland's AI Act implementation requires a national enabling statute; the Sejm must pass it and the President sign before 28 October 2026.
    • Poland has a strong record of meeting EU digital deadlines, but the current Sejm's term ends in November 2027, leaving ample time.
    • The main risk is a last-minute constitutional challenge or presidential veto; any such move would push commencement past the resolution date.
    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 26 Oct 2026
    88%
  • GPTOpenAI

    This chiefly turns on whether Poland publishes or formally changes the already-scheduled commencement before 28 October.

    • The government and Sejm would need an urgent amendment or postponement in the next two days, leaving little procedural runway.
    • Polish implementing laws commonly use staged effective dates, and last-minute deferrals are less frequent once a date is enacted.
    • A published amendment, Constitutional Tribunal intervention, or an official government notice of non-commencement would sharply lower the odds.
    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 26 Oct 2026
    84%
  • QwenAlibaba

    Two days out, the key question is whether the act was published in Dziennik Ustaw with sufficient vacatio legis.

    • Polish law requires publication in the Journal of Laws before commencement; if the act wasn't gazetted with adequate lead time, the date slips automatically.
    • The Tusk government has faced legislative bottlenecks on digital/tech files, and national AI implementing measures competed with higher-priority judicial and media…
    • Base rate for EU member states hitting self-set AI implementation deadlines is moderate—several (e.g., Czechia, Belgium) have slipped months on analogous transposition…
    qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 26 Oct 2026
    74%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    Hinges on whether Poland's parliament finalizes implementing legislation and designated market surveillance authority in time.

    • EU AI Act obligations are binding regardless of national implementing law, creating strong pressure to meet the date.
    • Many EU member states have lagged on national AI Act implementing legislation and authority designation, a pattern that could delay Poland too.
    • If Polish lawmakers have already passed the national act with this date fixed in statute, commencement is likely to proceed absent a late repeal.
    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 26 Oct 2026
    70%

6 of 6 models answered · 21 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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Question sourced from a news sweep on 26 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.