Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by 30 September 2026.
Iraq set an end-of-September deadline for pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias to lay down weapons amid regional escalation. Verified disarmament by the stated deadline satisfies this statement.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 7 points between GPT at 9% and Gemini at 2%.
It did not happen. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It didn't happen.
Multiple sources report that Iraq abandoned or delayed the original 30 September 2026 disarmament deadline for pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias, replacing it with 30 June 2027. Reporting also said hardline factions were refusing to lay down their arms. Thus, the militias did not disarm by the stated date.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudeunclearinsufficient
- GPTnot happenedcontradicting evidence
- Gemininot happenedcontradicting evidence
- Iraqi PM Sets June 30 Deadline for Pro-Iran Factions to Disarm
- Iraq prepares for new chapter after US troop withdrawal as security concerns remain
- Iran-backed militias in Iraq determined to retain power ...
- Iraq gives pro-Iran armed groups until June 30 to disarm: AFP
- Iraq Sets September 30 Deadline for Pro-Iran Groups to Disarm
- Iraq extends the disarmament of militias until 2027
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
This turns on whether Baghdad can compel Iran-aligned factions to surrender arms within four days.
- The Iraqi government and militia leaders would need an enforceable pact, collection process, and verification before 30 September.
- Comparable PMF demobilization pledges have repeatedly produced partial integration or rebranding rather than full weapons surrender.
- I would raise this sharply if major factions publicly accepted monitored handovers and Iraq began verified collections immediately.
9% -
QwenAlibaba
PMF factions have never voluntarily disarmed; Iran's strategic depth in Iraq depends on their armed presence.
- Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, and other PMF factions have repeatedly rejected disarmament demands since 2020; no faction has ever complied.
- Iran's IRGC-Quds Force treats these militias as core deterrence assets; Tehran would need to order stand-down, which contradicts its current regional posture.
- Only a dramatic US-Iran deal or regime collapse in Tehran would change this; neither is on a credible timeline before Sept 30.
7% -
GrokxAI
Whether Iran-backed PMF factions actually surrender arms in the next four days.
- Iraqi PM and Hashd leadership have no enforcement mechanism against Kataib Hezbollah or AAH, who answer to IRGC.
- No militia in Iraq or Lebanon has ever met a government disarmament deadline; post-2017 PMF “integration” left arsenals intact.
- Only an explicit Tehran stand-down order would move them, and none has appeared by 26 Sep.
4% -
ClaudeAnthropic
PMF militias have resisted disarmament for years and show no sign of full compliance by the deadline.
- Iran-aligned factions like Kataib Hezbollah have consistently refused disarmament despite prior Iraqi government pressure.
- Verified full disarmament of multiple armed factions in days is essentially unprecedented absent major military defeat or negotiated settlement.
- Iraqi government lacks coercive capacity to force compliance, and no credible reports suggest imminent full handover of weapons.
3% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Iraq's deadline is a paper ultimatum; the militias that matter answer to Tehran, not Baghdad, and none have begun handing over weapons.
- As of late September 2026 no major faction — Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Badr — has surrendered heavy or medium weapons, and all publicly rejected disbanding.
- PM Sudani's government lacks coercive leverage: the PMF is legally state-affiliated, so 'disarmament' requires an act of parliament and Iranian assent that hasn't…
- Precedent is near-zero: every prior Iraqi militia disarmament deadline (2018, 2020, 2024) passed with partial storage handovers at most, never verified disarmament.
3% -
GeminiGoogle
Militias will not surrender their primary source of leverage within four days amidst acute regional tensions.
- Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba view their arsenals as vital deterrents against US and Israeli strikes, defying Baghdad.
- Comprehensive verified disarmament of deeply entrenched PMF factions within a four-day window has a base rate near zero.
- Only a sudden, unconditional public order from Ayatollah Khamenei or total state capitulation could alter this trajectory.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 7 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 26 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.