◉ CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT 6 MONTHS HORIZON RESOLVES 13 MAR 2027 · in 5mo

Spain's official tally of heatwave days in 2026 remains at 61 following the year-end climate reporting cycle.

Spain recorded a record 61 heatwave days in 2026. The question resolves based on whether official year-end climate reports confirm or revise this tally.

Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans no: the median is 48%.

They do not agree: DeepSeek puts it at 74% and GPT at 3%, 71 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.

Nothing is settled until 13 Mar 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    Modern heat-day counts use station records; revision downward is rare, but national tallies often finalize only in summer reports.

    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    74%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    Preliminary tallies are often adjusted slightly during final year-end climate reporting

    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    58%
  • GeminiGoogle

    Post-season station data consolidation and homogenization by AEMET frequently adjusts tallies by 1-2 days.

    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    38%
  • GPTOpenAI

    A full-year 2026 tally cannot credibly be fixed by September; reporting is likely to add or revise days.

    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 2026
    3%
  • GrokxAI
    no answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    –
  • QwenAlibaba
    no answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    –

4 of 6 models answered · 71 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.