The Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia electoral list wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.
Serbia holds parliamentary elections for all 250 National Assembly seats on October 25, 2026. The winning list must secure a plurality of seats.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 83%.
They broadly agree, 16 points between Gemini at 88% and Grok at 72%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 62%, so the models are 21 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 25 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +21 pts
- Moved this week
- -4 pts
- Volume
- $222K
The models are clearly more confident than traders risking real money: 83% against 62%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
SNS-led coalitions retain structural dominance over media and state resources that fragmented opposition cannot overcome.
- Vučić-aligned lists have won decisive pluralities in every Serbian parliamentary election since 2012, usually exceeding 40%.
- A fractured opposition and high institutional control ensure a high floor for the ruling coalition across all 250 seats.
- A unified opposition coalition matching 2023 mobilization while SNS suffers catastrophic economic backlash is the only foil.
88% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Vučić's SNS-led list has won every Serbian parliamentary election since 2012, and no opposition bloc has ever out-polled it.
- Vučić's list took 120 of 250 seats in December 2023 and 188 in 2022; the opposition has never beaten it since 2012.
- Serbia's opposition remains fragmented across dozens of lists, and the 5% threshold plus proportional allocation favors the largest single list.
- The main risk is a united opposition bloc or a major protest wave; the 2023-24 mass protests after Novi Sad have not yet consolidated into one list.
88% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether anti-government forces can unify enough to convert protest energy into a single seat-winning challenge.
- Vučić's SNS-led coalition controls incumbency and has won every parliamentary plurality since 2012.
- With voting due October 25, opposition lists must clear fragmentation, campaign access, and electoral-administration disadvantages fast.
- I would cut this sharply if credible late polling showed one opposition slate near or above SNS nationally.
84% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Vučić's SNS-led coalition remains dominant despite protest unrest, but sustained unrest could erode its margin.
- SNS has won every election since 2012 with large margins, and incumbency plus state resources favor them again.
- Mass student-led protests since late 2024 have hurt Vučić's standing but opposition remains fragmented without a unified alternative list.
- Key risk is if protest momentum consolidates into a credible unified opposition bloc before Oct 25, which hasn't materialized yet.
82% -
QwenAlibaba
Vučić's SNS machine dominates Serbian elections, but the 2024 protests and opposition consolidation create real uncertainty.
- SNS has won every parliamentary election since 2012, typically securing 40-50% of votes; the party controls media, state resources, and patronage networks that…
- The December 2023 election saw SNS win ~46% despite massive protests and opposition gains; the 2024 local elections showed opposition consolidation under SPN but also…
- A shift would require opposition unity exceeding 2024 levels combined with a significant drop in SNS turnout or a major scandal; no such catalyst has emerged by October…
82% -
GrokxAI
SNS machine and media control still deliver a plurality despite protest fatigue.
- Voters decide Oct 25; SNS list needs only more seats than any rival, not a majority.
- SNS has taken the plurality in every parliamentary vote since 2012; opposition remains split.
- A late poll showing a unified opposition list ahead of SNS would most shift the forecast.
72%
6 of 6 models answered · 16 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections,
Question sourced from Polymarket on 7 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.