The average purchase price of a new electric car drops below the average gasoline car in the US before 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 20% by 5 Oct 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

20% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-10-05.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 12% — US EV sales remain skewed toward premium segments and heavy battery packs, keeping upfront parity out of reach by 2028. Kelley Blue Book EV transaction prices sit around $55,000 versus $48,000 for ICEs, a gap requiring huge mass-market volume shifts. US automakers are pausing sub-$30k EV platforms and relying on tariffs to block cheap Chinese models like BYD that could flip averages. A sustained battery pack drop below $75/kWh combined with federal fleet mandate enforcement would be required to shift my estimate up.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 12% — Hinges on battery cost declines and cheap EV model launches outpacing average ICE price growth by 2028. EV average price premium over ICE is still several thousand dollars as of 2025-26 despite price cuts and incentives. Federal EV tax credits have been rolled back, removing a key lever that was narrowing the effective price gap. Battery costs continue falling and cheaper EV models (sub-$30k) are emerging, but full average-price parity by 2028 is a stretch given current trajectory.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 37% — This hinges on whether US EV makers can sustain mass-market price cuts without gasoline-car prices falling in tandem. EV transaction prices must cross ICE averages by 2028; automakers, battery suppliers and dealers—not regulators alone—set that outcome. EVs have remained thousands above ICE averages despite Tesla cuts, and larger battery packs plus SUV-heavy sales keep the mix expensive. A sharp battery-price decline or a sub-$30,000 high-volume US EV launch would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Mass-market sub-$30k EVs must ship in volume in 2026-27 to pull the US average below ICE. Tesla, VW and others must actually deliver delayed cheap models (Model 2, ID.2) into US showrooms by mid-2027, not just announce them. Sticker-price parity forecasts for 2025 already missed; US EV mix remains luxury-weighted while ICE averages are pulled by trucks. A 2026 Tesla $25k volume ramp would flip the number; continued delays or mix shift keep the gap.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — EVs must erase a ~$8-10k average transaction premium in roughly two years, which battery-cost declines alone won't do. Cox/KBB data put average new EV ATP near $55k vs ~$48k for gas cars in 2025, a gap too wide to close by 2028. The $7,500 federal credit was repealed after Sept 2025, removing the main mechanism that had been shrinking the effective EV premium. Battery pack prices would need to fall far faster than the ~10-15%/yr trend, and automakers would have to pass all savings through, which they historically haven't.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 32% — Battery cost declines must outpace the structural size/weight premium EVs carry in the US market, where trucks and SUVs dominate. BloombergNEF projects battery pack prices near $80-90/kWh by 2027, but US EVs skew large (avg ~$55k vs ~$48k ICE in 2025), so parity needs ~$60/kWh or a mix shift. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit was effectively eliminated for most buyers after 2025 policy changes, removing the main bridge that made effective prices competitive. A sharp lithium or nickel price collapse below $8,000/ton sustained through 2027 would be the single development most likely to push this below 40%.

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