The Bank of England increases the Bank Rate at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 25% by 18 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

25% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-18.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 38% — Hike odds hinge on whether services inflation and wage prints before November swing two more votes to the existing three-member hawkish bloc. A 6-3 hold vote signals persistence, but flipping two centrist members requires upside CPI surprises rather than current sideways momentum. Central banks historically avoid hiking after prolonged pauses unless headline shocks destabilize expectations, keeping base rates below 50%. A sharper-than-expected rebound in UK regular wage growth above 5% in the October release would instantly make a 25 bps hike the baseline.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — BoE is on a cutting bias amid weak growth, so a hike at the next meeting would be a sharp reversal. Three dissents were for a hike but majority still voted to hold, showing hawks remain a minority on the MPC. UK growth has been sluggish and market pricing has leaned toward eventual cuts, not further tightening. A hike would require a sudden inflation shock or wage/data surprise, which is possible but not the base case by year-end 2026.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 28% — It turns chiefly on whether autumn inflation and wage data force the MPC to reverse its easing bias within one meeting. The next scheduled decision is likely in early November 2026, so the committee has limited new CPI, labour-market and GDP evidence. Three hike dissents make a move more plausible than a typical post-hold meeting, but a majority still preferred 3.75% on 19 September. A sharp upside October CPI or pay surprise would lift the odds; otherwise central banks usually wait through several data releases before hiking.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 22% — Whether data before the next MPC force two more members to join the three hike dissenters. The September MPC held 3.75% 6-3; a hike needs at least two switches inside six weeks. BoE consecutive-meeting reversals after a hold occur ~15% of the time. A large upside CPI or wage surprise before November would most shift the odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether two more MPC members join the three dissenters to form a majority for a hike by 5 November. The MPC's next scheduled decision is 5 November 2026; three members already dissented for a hike at the last meeting, so a hike is live but not the majority view. A hike requires five of nine votes; with three dissenters, two more members must be convinced by November, and the burden is on incoming data to shift them. Base rate: the MPC has held at 3.75% recently and only hikes when inflation surprises upward; the split vote puts this case above the usual hold, but below a majority.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 42% — Three dissenters for a hike signal upward pressure, but the MPC's recent bias has been toward holding or cutting amid slowing inflation. The MPC held at 3.75% with a 6-3 split favoring a hike; historically, 3-dissenter votes precede a move within 1-2 meetings roughly 60% of the time. However, the BoE's current cycle has been one of gradual easing from a peak near 5.25%; a hike would require a clear upside inflation shock (e.g., energy or wage data)… The key swing factor is the next CPI print (mid-October) and the November Inflation Report—if core services inflation re-accelerates above 5%, the probability jumps…

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