Markets & Economy predictions

139 dated questions on central banks, rates, inflation, indices, recessions — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. Of those, 2 have passed their deadlines and been graded against cited sources.

Markets & Economy predictions

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises interest rates this week.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate on December 9, 2026.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 29–30, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged on October 28, 2026.

The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 28, 2026 decision.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official cash rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada raises its policy interest rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises its inflation forecasts in its 30 October 2026 outlook report.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 30 October 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 28 October 2026 meeting.

Crude oil closes below $85 on November 2, 2026 and the Republican Party wins control of the US Senate.

The US PCE deflator shows an acceleration in inflation in the October 29, 2026 release.

The Bank of England raises its policy interest rate at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada changes its policy interest rate at its October 28, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank increases key interest rates at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

Australia records two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before the end of 2027.

Statistics Canada reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before July 2027.

The NBER declares a US recession beginning before the end of 2027.

The S&P 500 declines by at least 20% from its recent peak before the end of 2027.

Oil closes at or above $85 on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm election.

Crude oil closes below $85 on November 2, 2026 and the Democratic Party wins control of the US Senate.

U.S. industrial production increases in the October 16, 2026 release.

Eurostat revises Eurozone September 2026 final headline CPI relative to the preliminary estimate.

The Bank of England raises Bank Rate at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank changes its deposit facility rate on October 29, 2026.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting.

Crude oil closes below $80 on November 2, 2026 and Republicans win the US Senate in the 2026 midterm election.

The Federal Reserve raises the target range for the federal funds rate at its 27-28 October 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank raises policy interest rates at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its 28-29 October 2026 meeting.

Crude oil closes below $80 on November 2, 2026 and Democrats win control of the US Senate.

The European Central Bank increases key interest rates at its next scheduled policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve leaves the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at its October 27–28, 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises the target range for the federal funds rate at its October 27–28, 2026 meeting.

The Bank of England raises its benchmark interest rate at its November 2026 policy meeting.

The NBER declares that a US recession began during 2026.

The S&P 500 reaches a new all-time high before January 2028.

The S&P 500 drops by at least 20% from its recent peak before July 2027.

The European Central Bank raises key interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting following September 2026.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

The BEA's initial estimate of U.S. annualized real GDP growth for Q3 2026 is at least 2.2%.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its December 2026 meeting.

Euro-area headline inflation reaches or exceeds 4.0% year-over-year by the end of 2026.

The European Central Bank signals further policy tightening at its October 2026 policy decision.

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting.

The Reserve Bank of India raises its policy rate to 5.5% during the week of October 5, 2026.✓ happened

The European Central Bank increases interest rates at its October 2026 policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate at the October 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

The S&P 500 experiences a single-day decline of at least 7% before the end of 2027.

The Federal Reserve raises its 2026 core PCE inflation projection at its next Summary of Economic Projections.

The upcoming U.S. headline PCE inflation reading meets or exceeds 3.7% year over year.✗ didn't

The next Euro-area composite PMI release remains at or above 53.1.

The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate in December 2026.

The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate at its October 2026 meeting.

Euro-area headline inflation remains above the ECB's target through the first half of 2027.

The S&P 500 closes higher over the next 12 months than its current level.