The Bank of England raises Bank Rate at its next scheduled MPC decision.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 19% by 25 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

19% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-25.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 19% — The MPC's hurdle to resume tightening after pausing at 3.75% requires an acute inflation flare-up before early November. The 9-member MPC meets next on November 5, leaving only one round of CPI prints to force an abrupt hawkish pivot. Central banks rarely hike directly out of a pause unless headline inflation re-accelerates well above the 2% target. A sharp wage shock or sterling plunge would flip my view, but a hold or eventual gradual cut remains the default path.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 8% — MPC has stayed on a cutting/holding bias with sticky-but-easing inflation; a hike would reverse the recent trend abruptly. Central banks rarely reverse from pause/cut cycles to hikes without a fresh inflation shock, and none is evident yet. BoE guidance after the September hold emphasized risk-watching, not tightening intent, suggesting hold is far more likely at the next meeting. A sharp upside inflation surprise or sterling collapse before the December meeting would be the main thing that could flip this.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 37% — It turns on whether autumn inflation and wage data worsen enough to overcome the MPC’s post-pause caution. A majority of the nine-member MPC must vote for a rise at the next scheduled decision, likely in early November. After a pause, immediate re-tightening is less common unless inflation or pay releases deliver a clear upside surprise. A sharp October CPI or earnings acceleration would raise the odds; softer activity data would favor another hold.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 18% — Whether Oct CPI/wages data reverse the 17 Sep pause before the ~5 Nov MPC. Nine-member MPC must vote a hike from 3.75% at the next scheduled meeting (early Nov). Post-pause hikes are rare (none 2013-21; only 2022 inflation shock); six weeks of data rarely suffice. A 0.4pp+ services CPI surprise or wage print >5% would most shift odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 8% — A hike requires the MPC to reverse a fresh pause within weeks, which it has almost never done without a shock. The next scheduled decision is 5 November 2026; between now and then only one CPI print (mid-October) and one labour market release land. The MPC voted 7-2 to hold at 3.75% on 17 September, so at least three members must flip toward tightening for a majority. Base rate: since 1997 the MPC has hiked at the meeting immediately after a pause only in 2022-23, when inflation was above 10%; CPI is now near target.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 38% — BoE paused at 3.75% with hawkish warnings, but raising from a pause requires a material inflation surprise within weeks. The next MPC meeting is likely 5–6 November 2026, giving ~6 weeks for data; a pause-to-hike reversal is rare without a shock. Base rate for a hike immediately after a pause is historically low (~15–20%), but the explicit inflation-risk warning lifts this above base. A single hot CPI print (October data due ~mid-November) or sterling collapse would push this above 60; soft data would drop it below 15.

The Bank of England raises Bank Rate at its next scheduled MPC decision.

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The European Central Bank increases its deposit rate at its next policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its next scheduled policy meeting.