The Democratic Party wins the NC-13 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
Voters decide North Carolina's 13th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Resolution depends on the certified party affiliation of the winning House candidate.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 13%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 39% and Qwen at 4%, 35 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 42%, so the models are 29 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 4 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -29 pts
- Moved this week
- +20 pts
- Volume
- $297K
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 13% against 42%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
NC-13 is a narrowly Republican-leaning suburban seat, so turnout and the national House environment decide it.
- Republicans won the redrawn district in 2022 and 2024, but its Raleigh-area electorate has been competitive in recent cycles.
- A Democratic win requires its nominee to outperform the district’s GOP baseline on November 3, especially among suburban independents.
- A clearly Democratic national wave or late polling showing a sustained Democratic lead would raise this sharply.
39% -
ClaudeAnthropic
NC-13's current lean after redistricting and historical GOP tilt make this a Republican-favored but competitive district.
- NC-13 was redrawn by the GOP legislature and has leaned Republican in recent cycles, giving the incumbent-favored party an edge.
- Midterm environment under a Democratic-unfavorable or favorable national mood matters, but district-level map bias generally outweighs modest national swings.
- A late Democratic wave or strong local candidate quality shift could flip this; absent that, the redrawn lines favor the GOP nominee.
25% -
GrokxAI
Dems must flip an R+8/R+9 Cook PVI seat three days from Election Day.
- GOP nominee (Knott or successor) starts with 2024 15-pt win and R registration edge that rarely flips without a 10-pt national wave.
- 2026 midterms can produce anti-White-House swings, but NC-13 has no recent Dem overperformance and no late scandal to close the gap.
- A last-minute poll showing Dem within 4 would move this; none has, so base-rate hold stands.
18% -
GeminiGoogle
North Carolina's redrawn 13th congressional district is deeply Republican, making a Democratic flip virtually impossible even in a wave.
- The 2023 GOP gerrymander converted NC-13 from a competitive seat into an R+11 district anchored in deep-red rural Johnston and Harnett.
- Midterm base rates for unseating the party holding an R+10 or greater seat under stable boundaries hover under 5% historically.
- A major Democratic upset would require an unprecedented national environment plus extreme candidate scandal on the Republican side.
8% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether a national Democratic wave can overcome NC-13's structural Republican lean.
- NC-13 is a Republican-leaning district anchored in Johnston County and eastern Wake suburbs, drawn to favor the GOP after the 2023 redistricting.
- Democrats have not held this seat since the 2022 map was redrawn; the incumbent Republican won by double digits in 2024.
- A Democratic win would require a national wave larger than 2018 plus a strong suburban swing in Wake County, which current polling does not indicate.
8% -
QwenAlibaba
NC-13 was redrawn in 2023 into a safe Republican seat; even a strong 2026 wave won't reach it.
- Brad Knott (R) won the redrawn NC-13 in 2024 by a wide margin; the district's partisan lean is roughly R+15 or better.
- Midterm waves flip competitive seats, not safe ones—no modern wave has flipped a district this red without a scandal.
- Only a candidate-level catastrophe (indictment, withdrawal) for the Republican nominee would move this above single digits.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 35 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Question sourced from Polymarket on 31 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.