The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is signed into law before 2027.
US lawmakers are negotiating comprehensive regulatory frameworks for digital assets. Resolves as yes if H.R.3633 passes both chambers of Congress and is enacted into law by December 31, 2026.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 19%.
They do not agree: Claude puts it at 45% and DeepSeek at 12%, 33 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 4%, so the models are 15 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +15 pts
- Moved this week
- -1 pts
- Since we asked
- -27 pts
- Volume
- $24.6M
The models are clearly more confident than traders risking real money: 19% against 4%.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Passed House July 2025; Senate market structure bill negotiations ongoing, timeline tight but plausible by year-end
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202645% -
GrokxAI
Exact bill needs Senate+conference in ~3 months plus lame-duck; market-structure deals routinely stall.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202623% -
GPTOpenAI
With under four months left, a major standalone crypto framework still faces Senate time and deal hurdles.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202619% -
GeminiGoogle
Passing a major crypto market structure bill in a tight pre-election and lame-duck window faces low odds.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Crypto market-structure bill stalled in Senate; only ~3.5 months left, no floor time scheduled
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 33 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.