The European Food Safety Authority approves the commercial sale of cultivated meat before 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 30% by 8 Oct 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

30% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-10-08.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 37% — EFSA Novel Food risk assessments routinely stall via clock-stops, leaving barely 14 months to clear Gourmey's 2024 dossier. EFSA must adopt a positive scientific opinion on existing dossiers like Gourmey's before European Commission and PAFF sign-off. EU novel food reviews average 18 to 36 months due to repeated data requests, making a pre-2028 completion historically tight. A formal opinion concluding safety without requiring additional toxicology would swiftly push odds well above 70%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Hinges on whether any company files a complete EU novel food dossier early enough for EFSA's ~18-month review to finish before late 2029. No cultivated meat company has yet submitted a formal EU novel food application as of late 2025/2026, and EFSA review alone typically takes 9-18 months plus… EU approval process is notably slower and more politically fraught than US/Singapore/Israel due to member state pushback (e.g. Italy's ban, France's opposition) adding… A filing by a major player (Mosa Meat, Aleph Farms) in 2026-2027 with a smooth, uncontested review is the main path that could still clear by 2029.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 41% — This hinges on whether the first EU novel-food dossier reaches EFSA with enough safety data for a favorable opinion by 2027. EFSA gives scientific opinions, while the European Commission and Member States must then authorize sale through the novel-food process. No cultivated-meat product had EU authorization by 2026; Singapore, the US and Israel approvals show feasibility but not EU speed. A complete, well-supported dossier accepted in 2026–27 would raise the odds sharply; major data requests or Member State politics would delay it.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 38% — EFSA positive opinion on a first cultivated-meat novel-food dossier by 31 Dec 2027. A company must have a complete dossier under EFSA clock by early 2027; 9-month assessment plus stop-the-clock requests typically stretch 12-18 months. Novel-food opinions historically issue in 70% of cases within two years of completeness, but first-of-kind cellular products sit below that due to extra data demands on… A public EFSA completeness check or clock-start notice in Q4 2026 would raise the odds sharply; continued silence or a major data gap would drop them.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — EFSA's first cultivated-meat novel-food opinion hinges on a dossier EFSA has not yet received. No cultivated-meat novel food application has been validated by EFSA as of late 2026; the first is expected from a company like Mosa Meat or Aleph Farms. EFSA's novel food clock runs ~9 months from validation plus member-state scrutiny, so a 2027 filing could just clear 2028, but filings slip. Base rate: EFSA has never approved a cultivated-meat product; novel food approvals for insects took 2-4 years from filing, and this is a harder dossier.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 18% — EFSA novel food approvals take 18–24 months from application, and no cultivated meat dossier has been submitted as of late 2025. No company has yet filed a complete EFSA novel food application for cultivated meat; the first submission (Mosa Meat or similar) is unlikely before 2027, leaving… The only approved cultivated meat globally (Singapore, 2020; US, 2023) required years of regulatory engagement; EU novel food regulation (EC 2015/2283) adds a public… A development that would raise this materially: a company filing a complete dossier by mid-2026 with EFSA fast-tracking, which would be unprecedented but not impossible…

The European Food Safety Authority approves the commercial sale of cultivated meat before 2028.

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The UK Consumer Prices Index for food and non-alcoholic beverages registers negative annual inflation before 2028.

Canada's Consumer Price Index for food reports year-over-year deflation before 2028.