The European Union formally endorses Turkey's '35 by 35' goal during COP31.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 11% by 2 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

11% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-02.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 22% — EU endorsement requires consensus among member states, which Cyprus and Greece routinely block without diplomatic concessions. Environment Council omitted the goal from its mandate, leaving no formal EU legal basis to endorse it during negotiations. Bilateral friction over Eastern Mediterranean maritime borders historically derails unilateral EU gifts to Ankara at climate summits. A last-minute compromise packaging it into a broader regional Mediterranean renewable pact would flip the Council's resistance.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — EU already withheld backing before COP31; formal reversal to endorsement during the summit is unlikely. EU ministers set their COP31 stance pre-summit and explicitly withheld endorsement of the '35 by 35' goal. EU positions require consensus among 27 member states, making a sudden formal endorsement mid-summit logistically improbable. Base rate for the EU reversing a pre-negotiated climate stance within a single COP is very low absent major diplomatic pressure.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — Turkey needs a late EU political reversal from its already narrower COP31 mandate. EU ministers have explicitly prioritized clean electrification and withheld backing, making a reversal within a month atypical. Formal endorsement would require Council-level political clearance and alignment with the Commission before COP31 closes on 2 December. A Turkish concession linking the goal to stronger coal-exit, methane, or implementation terms would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 12% — EU reversing its withheld backing in remaining COP31 weeks. Ministers already withheld formal support while prioritizing electrification as of 2 Nov. Endorsement needs a Council or Commission declaration by COP close (~20 Nov–2 Dec). Last-minute EU climate U-turns are rare (~10-20% base); a Turkey energy concession would shift odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 8% — The EU has already withheld backing, and nothing in the COP31 calendar forces it to reverse that before Antalya closes. EU environment ministers set their COP31 stance around clean electrification and explicitly declined to endorse the Turkish target, so the default is no formal backing. COP31 runs in Antalya under Turkish presidency to late November 2026; the EU would need a new Council conclusion or summit declaration, which takes weeks and no such… Brussels rarely endorses a host's headline energy goal mid-conference without pre-agreed language; the one thing that flips this is a late EU-Turkey deal trading the…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 9% — EU has already withheld backing and would need a dramatic diplomatic reversal to formally endorse Turkey's framing. The context states EU ministers explicitly withheld formal backing, signaling a settled internal position that requires unanimity to reverse. COP31 host leverage is real but typically yields procedural concessions, not formal EU endorsements of specific national proposals. A shift would require Turkey offering something the EU values more than its clean electrification framing—no such trade has surfaced.

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