The European Union passes legislation banning children under 13 from online games and social media.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 31% by 17 Sept 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

31% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-09-17.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — EU legislative trilogues typically water down blanket bans into parental consent mandates and age-verification compliance rules. Passing an EU regulation requires Council and Parliament approval, where tech lobbies and civil liberties groups push for consent over bans. Precedents like GDPR Article 8 set digital age of consent between 13 and 16, leaving outright prohibitions rare across all online games. A formal Commission draft backing an outright ban rather than enhanced age gating by late 2027 would push odds well above 50%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 6% — Turns on whether the Commission's proposal survives Parliament/Council negotiation as an outright ban rather than parental-consent rules. EU digital legislation (GDPR, DSA, AI Act) historically takes 2-4 years from proposal to adoption, often watered down from outright bans to consent/verification… Member states and platforms will push back hard on a blanket under-13 ban, favoring age-verification or parental-consent compromises instead. A shift toward binding text with an explicit under-13 prohibition clearing Council and Parliament before Sept 2029 would raise this significantly.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 41% — The outcome hinges on whether Parliament and member states accept a hard EU-wide age-13 ban rather than softer parental-consent rules. The Commission must table a binding proposal, then Parliament and the Council must agree a text before September 2029. EU child-safety rules usually impose platform duties and parental safeguards, while outright service bans face enforcement and proportionality hurdles. Odds rise sharply if the Commission includes this in a 2027–28 digital package and major states back age verification.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 35% — Whether co-legislators adopt a hard under-13 ban rather than age-verification rules by late 2029. Commission text (if tabled) still needs Parliament-Council agreement; trilogues average 18-36 months and often stall. DSA/DMA passed but left age-of-consent national (13-16); games/social-media bans face stronger industry and SME pushback. A Franco-German joint push or Australia-style political cascade would raise odds; otherwise dilution to 16+ or parental-consent is likelier.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — This turns on whether the Commission's pending under-13 ban survives co-decision with member states before the 2029 term ends. The Commission must publish a formal proposal first; as of 2026 only a leaked draft and consultation exist, and no text has entered Parliament. Parliament and Council co-decision typically takes 18-36 months, so a 2027 proposal could clear by 2029, but age-verification fights with member states are likely to… Comparable EU child-protection rules (GDPR age-13 consent, DSA minor provisions) took 3-5 years and were watered down; a blanket gaming ban is more contentious, so I sit…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 34% — EU digital-age legislation is politically popular but the trilogue process and member-state divergence on enforcement make a binding ban by 2029 a coin-flip at best. The Digital Fairness Act / revised ePrivacy framework is still at proposal stage; ordinary legislative procedure requires Commission, Parliament, and Council… France and Spain have pushed for under-15/under-16 bans, while Nordic states favor softer parental-consent models; Council consensus on a hard under-13 prohibition has… A single high-profile child-safety incident or a strong push from the Parliament's IMCO/LIBE committees could accelerate this to 50%+, but the base rate for EU digital…

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