The European Union sets a dedicated 2040 renewable-energy target excluding nuclear power.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 38% by 3 Oct 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

38% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-10-03.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 37% — France and the 12-nation Nuclear Alliance hold enough Council blocking power to veto purely renewable-only 2040 mandates. RED III precedents and the 2040 climate roadmap negotiation show rising momentum for tech-neutral low-carbon energy definitions. The Council requires a qualified majority where pro-nuclear states consistently demand exemptions or equal recognition for atomic power. Germany and allies could insist on a standalone RES target, but compromise packages will almost certainly embed nuclear flexibilities.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 12% — Nuclear-friendly states (France-led coalition) are blocking a renewables-only target; a technology-neutral framing is far more likely. France and a coalition of ~10-12 states have pushed to keep nuclear counted toward 2040 decarbonization goals, resisting a pure renewables target. EU 2040 climate target negotiations (Commission proposal, Council/Parliament trilogue) have trended toward flexibility language covering low-carbon and nuclear alongside… A shift would require France and allies to drop their nuclear-inclusion demand, which has been a consistent red line since the 2023/2024 taxonomy and RED III disputes.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 57% — It hinges on whether the post-2030 climate-law revision preserves today’s renewables-only framing despite pro-nuclear member states. The Commission must propose and Parliament plus the Council must adopt a 2040 package, likely after the 2040 climate-target process. EU law already uses a renewable-energy target—42.5% by 2030 under RED III—while nuclear is treated separately as low-carbon. A durable pro-nuclear Council blocking minority or an EU-wide low-carbon target replacing renewables would materially lower the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — Commission/Council/EP must legislate a 2040 RES share (RED-style) rather than only GHG or a nuclear-inclusive low-carbon metric. Climate Law already requires a 2040 GHG proposal; RED/EED updates historically follow within 2–3 years, so a 2027–28 package is the default path. France-led nuclear bloc can block a high standalone RES number but cannot redefine nuclear as renewable, so any dedicated RES target automatically excludes it. Precedent of 2020/2030 RES targets sits above a pure GHG-only outcome; a Franco-German deal converting it into ‘clean energy’ would most change the call.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 38% — Turns on whether the Commission's 2040 package hard-codes a renewables-only number or a technology-neutral one. The Commission must table a 2040 climate framework with a 2040 target; its 2024 impact assessment leaned on renewables but left nuclear's role contested. Parliament and Council must then agree via ordinary procedure, and the nuclear bloc (France, Sweden, Finland) plus renewables-only states (Austria, Denmark) makes a… Base rate: EU 2030 targets already split renewables (32%) from nuclear-free language, so a dedicated 2040 renewables target is plausible but the nuclear fight has…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 34% — The split between France's nuclear-inclusive camp and Germany/Spain's renewables-only camp makes a clean exclusion unlikely. EU climate targets (Fit for 55, 2040 climate target proposal) have trended toward 'low-carbon' language to keep France and Eastern members aboard; a renewables-only 2040… The 2040 climate target communication (Feb 2024) already uses 'net-zero' framing; the legislative proposal expected 2025-26 faces Council qualified-majority hurdles… A shift would require a pro-nuclear government collapse in France or a supermajority of renewables-only states forming a blocking minority—possible but below base rate…

The European Union sets a dedicated 2040 renewable-energy target excluding nuclear power.

Texas lifts its moratorium on permitting new data center projects.

California enacts legislation requiring data centers to pay specific grid-impact costs.

Nuclear fission and fusion generate more than 20% of global electricity in 2035.

A commercial nuclear fusion reactor begins supplying electricity under a power purchase agreement before 2032.