The FAO Food Price Index drops below its pre-2021 annual average before 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 15% by 1 Nov 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

15% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-11-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — Nominal agricultural commodity prices rarely retrace 20% in an inflationary baseline with structural fertilizer and climate pressures. The FAO index has remained above 118 points through 2024-2026; reaching sub-98.1 requires an unprecedented 18%+ sustained deflation. Only 2027 remains to print an annual average before January 2028, leaving essentially one harvest cycle to trigger global oversupply. A massive concurrent crash in crude oil and global demand could depress grains, but geopolitical risk keeps risk skewed upward.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 9% — Hinges on whether global food commodity prices fall back to roughly 2017-2020 nominal levels by end-2027. FAO index averaged ~98 pre-2021 but has stayed near 120-130 since 2021, reflecting structural cost shifts (energy, fertilizer, labor) not just transient shocks. Nominal commodity indices rarely revert fully to pre-shock lows absent deflation; disinflation has slowed price growth but not reversed cumulative gains. Only major demand collapse, bumper global harvests multiple years running, or sharp currency/energy deflation could push the index that low by 2027.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 31% — It hinges on whether several years of benign harvests and low energy costs can unwind the 2021–24 price reset. FAO’s annual index was 95.1 in 2020 but averaged well above 98.1 in 2021–24, leaving a meaningful gap to erase. Annual averaging requires a full calendar year below 98.1 by 2027; cereals, oils, sugar, meat and dairy all must stay subdued. A major recession or successive bumper crops could push it under, while weather shocks, war or oil-price rises would sharply reduce the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 12% — 2026-27 annual FFPI must fall ~20% from sticky ~120s to sub-98.1. FAO 2024-25 averages stayed 120-124; Nov-2026 data already lock most of 2026 near that range. Post-2008/11 spikes needed 4-6 years plus recession to recede fully; no such shock is priced in. Only a 2027 global harvest glut plus energy collapse would reverse it; neither is the base case.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 18% — Needs the FAO index to average under 98.1 for a full year — a level last seen in 2019-2020, before the war and inflation shocks. The index sat near 128 in 2024 and around 120-130 in 2025, so it must fall roughly 25% and hold there for twelve months. That requires broad disinflation across grains, oils, dairy and sugar simultaneously, plus no new Black Sea, Middle East or climate shock. Base rate: the index has never fallen 25% in a two-year window without a major demand collapse like 2008-09 or 2014-16.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 18% — Requires the index to fall ~15-20% from likely 2026 levels in under 18 months against structural headwinds. The index was ~118-122 in 2024 and likely ~105-115 in 2026; reaching sub-98.1 by end-2027 needs a steep acceleration of the decline. Climate-driven yield shocks, ongoing geopolitical friction, and energy costs create a structural floor well above the 2015-2016 trough (~70-75). A severe global recession or simultaneous bumper harvests across cereals, oils, and sugar could push it through, but that conjunction is unlikely.

The FAO Food Price Index drops below its pre-2021 annual average before 2028.

The UN Integrated Food Security Phase Classification declares Phase 5 Famine in at least one country during 2027.

Australia's consumer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages records annual inflation above 5% in 2027.

Cultivated meat achieves widespread retail supermarket availability in the United States before 2028.

Cultivated meat receives regulatory approval for commercial sale in Canada before 2029.