The Federal Reserve raises its policy rate at the November 3-4, 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 38% by 23 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

38% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-23.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 42% — FOMC typically prefers alternating meeting pauses over back-to-back rate hikes once a policy rate is already elevated. Having just raised rates in September, the Fed historically spaces out follow-up tightening moves to assess lagged transmission. The FOMC needs upside surprises in October CPI and employment to justify back-to-back hikes rather than waiting until December. A headline PCE print above 3.5% annualized prior to November 3 would be the primary catalyst forcing another consecutive hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 10% — Fed rate hikes rarely come back-to-back without a clear inflation shock, and no such trigger exists yet. This scenario contradicts current context describing a September 2026 hike, implying a tightening cycle rather than resumption after cuts. Historically the Fed pauses after a hike to assess data; consecutive meeting hikes are rare outside acute inflation surges like 2022. A hot CPI/PCE print in October or persistent wage growth data before the Oct 28 blackout could shift odds upward significantly.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 38% — It hinges on whether September’s hike reflects renewed inflation persistence rather than a one-off recalibration. The FOMC must see inflation or labor-market data justify another hike in just six weeks, despite policy lags. Back-to-back hikes occur in tightening cycles, but pauses after an initial move are common when data are mixed. An October CPI or payrolls upside surprise would materially lift the odds; easing core inflation would favor a hold.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 38% — Whether Sept-Oct data still show inflation too hot for a pause after the Sept hike. Powell and the FOMC must vote a 25bp hike on Nov 4; they usually need two more CPI/PCE prints and jobs data first. Consecutive-meeting hikes occur in ~45% of hiking-cycle meetings historically, but late-cycle pauses are more common after a restart. A hot October CPI or stronger payrolls would raise odds most; a cooling print would lock in a hold.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — A hike in September makes a follow-on November move plausible only if inflation data between now and then stays hot. The FOMC's September hike signals the committee is still in tightening mode, but back-to-back hikes are historically uncommon outside 2022-2023. Two CPI prints (Oct 13, Nov 12) and one jobs report land before the meeting; a soft print would let hawks pause. Base rate for a hike immediately after a hike in a non-crisis cycle is roughly 1 in 4; this case sits near that given easing inflation trend.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 62% — Turns on whether inflation data through October shows enough persistence to justify back-to-back hikes. The Fed has hiked at consecutive meetings roughly 60-70% of the time during active tightening cycles since 1990, so base rate favors continuation. A 25bp hike in September signals the committee sees upside inflation risk; reversing course six weeks later requires a sharp data surprise (e.g., a weak September CPI or… If September CPI (released mid-October) comes in hot or even in-line, the committee will face pressure to maintain credibility on its tightening path, making a pause the…

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