The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate in December 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 17% by 1 Jan 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

17% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 6% — FOMC rate hikes during a broader easing or plateau regime require a severe inflation resurgence that rarely materializes so quickly. The Fed typically maintains pauses or continued easing cycles for years before shifting back to hikes, making mid-cycle hikes rare. FOMC members would need multi-month core PCE prints above 3.5% annualized by autumn 2026 to justify reversing course. A sustained oil shock or massive fiscal stimulus re-igniting headline inflation by November 2026 is the main upside risk.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 5% — Fed is mid-easing cycle; a hike in Dec 2026 would require a sharp inflation surprise reversing course. Fed cut in Sept 2025 and markets price further easing, not tightening, through early 2026. Reversing to a hike within months of cutting is historically rare absent a sudden inflation shock or crisis. Watch Oct/Nov 2026 CPI and labor data; a sustained inflation re-acceleration would be the main thing to flip this.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 37% — It hinges on whether inflation or labor data force the FOMC to validate markets’ late-2026 tightening expectations. The 12-member FOMC must vote for an increase at its likely December 15–16 meeting after October and November CPI and jobs reports. December hikes are uncommon outside active tightening cycles; a September move raises the conditional odds but also permits a pause. A material upside inflation surprise or reacceleration in payrolls would shift this sharply higher; soft data would favor holding.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 27% — Dec hike requires inflation reacceleration visible in Oct-Nov data after the September FOMC action. FOMC votes at the mid-December 2026 meeting; November meeting is the last prior chance to act or signal. Hikes occur in ~8% of non-cycle meetings historically; market pricing of a Dec/Jan possibility lifts this case modestly above that base. A 0.3pp+ jump in core CPI or PCE would most shift odds, as the Committee has repeatedly required clear data before reversing course.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — This needs inflation to re-accelerate enough that the Fed hikes again just two months after its September move. The FOMC meets Dec 8-9, 2026; a hike requires a majority of 12 voters to see inflation stalling above 2% despite the September increase. Base rate for a hike within three months of a prior hike in a non-recession cycle is roughly 25-30%, but the Fed is near neutral and easing bias dominates. The one development that flips this: a hot October or November CPI print above 0.4% core m/m, which would put a December hike genuinely in play.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 12% — The Fed almost never hikes in consecutive meetings; a December 2026 hike requires a sharp inflation re-acceleration between now and then. The FOMC has not raised rates at back-to-back meetings since 2023; a September hike followed by a December hike would be historically rare. Market pricing of a 'possibility' is not the same as a base case; futures typically price tail scenarios at 10-20% probability. A hike would require CPI or PCE to surprise sharply upward in Oct-Nov data releases; absent that, the Fed would hold to assess the September move's effects.

The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate in December 2026.

The S&P 500 experiences a single-day decline of at least 7% before the end of 2027.

The Federal Reserve raises its 2026 core PCE inflation projection at its next Summary of Economic Projections.

The upcoming U.S. headline PCE inflation reading meets or exceeds 3.7% year over year.

The next Euro-area composite PMI release remains at or above 53.1.