The Federal Reserve raises the target federal funds rate at its next FOMC meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 72% by 18 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

72% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-18.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — Turns on whether incoming CPI and payrolls soften enough to derail explicitly guided forward momentum. The FOMC rarely deviates from explicit tightening guidance within a single intermeeting period without a major market shock. Historically, once an active hiking sequence resumes and signals follow-through, consecutive hikes occur roughly 75% of the time. A sudden collapse in monthly job additions below zero or a sharp intermeeting banking panic would quickly freeze the Committee.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 15% — Turns on whether inflation data between September and December forces a follow-up hike despite typical Fed pause patterns. Fed usually pauses after a hike to assess data; back-to-back hikes are less common than skip-then-hike patterns. Context says Fed 'signaled further tightening' which raises odds above base rate but doesn't guarantee action at the very next meeting. Would need hot CPI/PCE prints through November to justify December hike; absent that, a hold is more likely.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 71% — The September projection and inflation data between meetings will determine whether officials deliver another hike. The FOMC must vote to raise at its next scheduled meeting, likely November 3–4, leaving roughly six weeks of incoming data. After a hike paired with explicit further-tightening guidance, consecutive or near-consecutive hikes are historically more common than pauses. A sharp payroll slowdown or meaningful inflation undershoot before the October CPI release would most likely shift the Committee to hold.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 72% — Whether post-Sept data still support another hike at the November FOMC. FOMC votes at the next scheduled meeting (early November 2026) after already signaling further tightening. Consecutive hikes occurred in most 2022-23 tightening meetings once a cycle was underway. Faster-than-expected cooling in inflation or payrolls between now and early November would most reverse the signal.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — The Fed's own September dot plot and post-meeting guidance point to one more hike, and nothing on the calendar between now and December is likely to stop it. The FOMC meets Oct 27-28 and Dec 8-9; the September statement explicitly kept 'additional policy firming' on the table, so the burden is on data to force a pause. Core PCE near 3% and unemployment under 4.5% give the committee little cover to stop early, matching the ~60% base rate for a follow-through hike after a hawkish signal. A sharp October payroll miss or a core CPI print below 0.2% m/m would be the one development that flips this to a hold.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — Turns on whether incoming inflation and labor data through November sustain the tightening signal the Fed gave in September. The Fed explicitly signaled further tightening in September, and historically when the FOMC signals intent, it follows through ~85% of the time. The next meeting is likely November 2026, giving only ~6 weeks for data to shift the committee's view—too short for a major reversal unless a shock hits. A sharp labor-market deterioration or a financial-stress event before the November meeting would be the main catalyst to cut this probability significantly.

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