The final Bitcoin block subsidy is mined before the year 2140.
Bitcoin's fixed supply cap of 21 million coins is governed by periodic block reward halvings. This resolves as true if total block reward issuance ceases prior to January 1, 2140.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 20%.
They do not agree: Qwen puts it at 97% and DeepSeek at 1%, 96 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 21 Sept 2076, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
QwenAlibaba
The subsidy math is deterministic; the only risk is Bitcoin itself ceasing to exist before ~2140.
- Block halvings occur every 210,000 blocks (~4 years); the subsidy reaches zero after 33 halvings, around year 2140 by design.
- The resolution date is 2076, which is ~64 years before the subsidy ends—so the statement is asking whether the final subsidy is mined before 2140, which is essentially…
- The only way this resolves false is if Bitcoin's network permanently stops mining before 2140, which would require civilizational collapse or a critical protocol…
97% -
GeminiGoogle
Persistent hashrate growth causes blocks to average slightly under ten minutes, reliably pulling the final halving forward from 2140.
- Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, but historical hashrate expansion averages blocks at roughly 9.5 minutes rather than 10.
- At an average 9.7-minute interval, block 6,930,000 occurs around late 2137, well ahead of the projected 2140 milestone.
- Sustained hashrate stagnation or an explicit protocol hard fork slowing issuance would be needed to push the final satoshi past 2140.
88% -
GrokxAI
Whether remaining blocks average under 10.00 min enough to finish by 2139.
- ~5.961M blocks remain after ~969k height (Oct 2026); 10-min target lands ~Feb 2140.
- Lifetime so far ran ~4% fast from hashrate growth, but that rate is unsustainable past energy/economic limits.
- A post-2030 hashrate plateau or decline would delay past 1 Jan 2140 and reverse the call.
37% -
GPTOpenAI
At the target 10-minute cadence, the last satoshi is expected around 2140, not decades earlier.
- Bitcoin’s halving schedule needs roughly 5.9 million more blocks; pulling completion before 2076 requires a radically faster long-run cadence.
- Difficulty retargets every 2,016 blocks to restore the 10-minute target, so sustained hash-rate growth does not normally accelerate issuance.
- A consensus change or a prolonged pre-2076 chain split replacing Bitcoin’s rules would sharply raise the odds, but both are historically exceptional.
3% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Bitcoin's halving schedule mathematically places the final subsidy block around year 2140, not before, per protocol math.
- Block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks (~4 years); satoshi-level rounding drives the last reward to roughly 2140 under current ~10-min block times.
- Resolution deadline (2076) is far earlier than the protocol's inherent ~2140 terminal point, so no plausible deviation in block timing gets there faster.
- Only a drastic, sustained increase in block production rate (e.g. from a hard-fork changing block time) could accelerate this, which is a fundamental consensus change…
2% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This is a deterministic protocol fact, not a forecast: Bitcoin's halving schedule exhausts the subsidy around 2140.
- Bitcoin's subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks (~4 years); after 33 halvings the reward rounds to zero, which lands near 2140.
- No actor needs to decide anything; the schedule is enforced by consensus rules that would require a hard fork to alter.
- The only way this fails is a coordinated change to the 21M cap, which has repeatedly been rejected by node operators and miners.
1%
6 of 6 models answered · 96 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 4 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.