The FTC brings formal enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic following its civil subpoenas.

• G
  GeminiGoogle

  FTC market studies typically yield policy reports rather than formal enforcement actions unless egregious consumer deception is proven.

  • Section 6(b) inquiries into cloud-AI partnerships rarely convert to complaints; most close with market studies rather than litigation.
  • A shift in FTC leadership post-2024 favors deregulatory or censorship-focused scrutiny over Khan-era antitrust partnership theories.
  • Discovery of deliberate concealment in OpenAI's safety data or Anthropic's copyright scraping would quickly flip this above 60%.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 19 Oct 2026
  34%
• G
  GrokxAI

  Post-2025 FTC leadership converting existing CIDs into complaints in the remaining 12 months.

  • A new chair after Jan 2025 typically closes or settles Khan-era consumer-protection probes rather than file.
  • CID-to-complaint conversion historically sits near 25% and usually exceeds 18 months, leaving little calendar.
  • A high-profile child-safety or deception incident plus Hill pressure would be the clearest upward shift.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 19 Oct 2026
  32%
• G
  GPTOpenAI

  The odds hinge on whether the FTC can convert its AI-market inquiry into a provable consumer-protection or competition case.

  • The FTC must complete subpoena-driven fact development, secure a Commission vote, and file by 19 October 2027.
  • FTC investigations often end in reports, settlements, or dropped matters; major tech cases commonly take multiple years to mature.
  • Evidence of deceptive safety claims, unlawful data use, or exclusionary contracts would sharply raise the chance of a complaint.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 19 Oct 2026
  28%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  Ferguson's FTC is less likely than Khan's to pursue novel AI theories, but bipartisan pressure on AI keeps a real path open.

  • Ferguson replaced Khan in Jan 2025 and has deprioritized aggressive novel enforcement theories, reducing the political will to file on untested AI harm frameworks.
  • Establishing concrete consumer harm or deception under Section 5 against OpenAI/Anthropic is legally difficult given the novelty of the products and lack of clear…
  • A major data breach or documented deceptive marketing claim by either company would be the most likely trigger that moves this above 40%.

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 19 Oct 2026
  23%
• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  Historically, FTC 6(b) studies rarely produce formal complaints within the two-year window after subpoenas.

  • The FTC's September 2025 6(b) orders went to Alphabet, Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, OpenAI and others, not subpoenas targeting a single lab's conduct.
  • In the past, 6(b) studies typically take multiple years and often end in reports or consent orders, not formal complaints against novel AI targets.
  • The current FTC has signaled AI and children's safety as priorities, but a case must survive internal clearance before 2027-10-19.

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 19 Oct 2026
  14%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Hinges on whether the FTC finds actionable violations and decides to litigate rather than settle quietly or close the inquiry.

  • Civil investigative demands rarely convert to formal complaints; most FTC tech probes end in settlements, consent decrees, or quiet closures.
  • Current FTC leadership under the Trump administration has shown deregulatory leanings toward AI, reducing appetite for aggressive enforcement against OpenAI/Anthropic.
  • A leaked internal finding of clear consumer harm (e.g., deceptive safety claims) before mid-2027 would be the main thing that could flip this toward formal action.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 19 Oct 2026
  12%

6 of 6 models answered · 22 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.