The human species remains extant on Earth in 2100.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 94% by 21 Sept 2076. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

94% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2076-09-21.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 91% — Complete extinction requires eliminating every isolated pocket of 8B+ widely dispersed humans, a hurdle extreme even for catastrophic shocks. Homo sapiens survived massive bottleneck events like Toba ~74kya with primitive tools; planetary dispersion makes 100% mortality extraordinarily difficult. Engineered biological agents or misaligned unconstrained AGI present the only credible non-astronomical vectors capable of reaching 100% lethality before 2100. Uncontrolled self-replicating molecular nanotechnology or runaway weaponized AGI achieving global omnicide would shift my estimate down significantly.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 99% — Human extinction within 75 years would require an unprecedented catastrophic event with no historical precedent at this speed. No existential risk (nuclear war, pandemic, AI, climate) has ever come close to 100% species extinction in recorded history. Extinction-level events require near-total, simultaneous failure of all resilience mechanisms across 8+ billion people and many redundant pockets of civilization. Resolution date of 2076 is even earlier than 2100, shrinking the window further and leaving little time for low-probability tail risks to compound.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 96% — Total human extinction this century requires a globally lethal, unrecoverable catastrophe across all refuges. Humans occupy every continent and have billions of people, so extinction is far harder than civilizational collapse. Past century-scale hazards have caused vast deaths but no near-extinction; nuclear war and engineered pandemics remain tail risks. I would cut this sharply if states deploy uncontrollable bioengineering or nuclear escalation removes major refuges.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 92% — Whether unaligned AGI or engineered pathogen/nuclear winter kills every last human by 2099. Natural catastrophes (impacts, supervolcanoes) have <0.1% century-scale extinction odds; only anthropogenic risks matter. Ord-type x-risk (~1/6) mostly covers unrecoverable collapse, not literal extinction, which has no historical precedent. Even a 2040s superintelligence would still need to eradicate 8bn people plus isolated groups, a high bar.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 92% — This turns on whether any single catastrophe — nuclear, engineered pathogen, or AI — actually reaches species-ending scale this century. No known mechanism has ever come close to human extinction in ~300,000 years, and past scares (Cuban Missile Crisis, 1918 flu, Y2K) all resolved without species loss. The main actors are states and labs; nuclear arsenals (~12,000 warheads) and biotech capability exist now, but deliberate extinction requires coordination no actor has… Base rate for a 74-year window is very high; I sit slightly below naive 99% because AI and synthetic biology are genuinely novel tail risks with no precedent.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 99% — Total human extinction within 73 years requires a failure mode that kills every last person simultaneously. No known risk—nuclear war, pandemic, AI, asteroid—has a credible mechanism for killing 8+ billion people with zero survivors. Base rate: zero human extinctions in 300k years of the species; even the worst catastrophes (Black Death, Toba) left millions. Would move me down: a demonstrated self-replicating nanoweapon or proof of an extinction-level asteroid on a confirmed collision course.

The human species remains extant on Earth in 2100.

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