The ISSB publishes its nature exposure draft by 31 October 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 62% by 6 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

62% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-06.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — ISSB's biodiversity project remains in the research phase and must clear standard-setting balloting before an Exposure Draft can drop. The board began a two-year research project on nature in mid-2024, making late 2026 the earliest window just to decide on standard-setting. Drafting, reviewing, and formal balloting of an Exposure Draft historically requires 6 to 12 months following research conclusion. A surprise release would require skipping standard due process or publishing an interim consultation rather than a full Exposure Draft.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 32% — Whether ISSB's internal drafting and board approval process finishes in time for an October 2026 public posting. Standard-setting bodies like ISSB frequently slip exposure draft timelines by months due to board deliberation delays. No confirmed public commitment to an exact October 2026 date was evident, raising risk of slippage into Q4/2027. A board vote finalizing the draft text before month-end would be the key signal that resolution is imminent.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — The key uncertainty is whether ISSB’s October workplan milestone holds or slips into November after board clearance. ISSB staff must complete technical drafting and obtain board approval before posting the consultation document by 31 October. ISSB has publicly targeted an October 2026 nature exposure draft, making this more likely than a generic new-standard launch. A late October board meeting, unresolved TNFD alignment, or a decision to extend deliberations would most likely push publication past month-end.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — ISSB must post the nature ED publicly in the remaining 24 days of October. Board and staff have to complete remaining deliberations and translations then upload to ifrs.org by 31 Oct; no later meeting window exists. IASB/ISSB EDs historically slip 1–3 months past target in ~40 % of cases once inside the final month; nature’s extra TNFD/TNFD-alignment complexity sits above that base. A 15–20 Oct ISSB meeting agenda that lists ‘approve nature ED’ would raise the odds sharply; its absence would drop them.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — Whether the ISSB board clears the nature exposure draft at its October meeting for posting before month-end. The ISSB's own work plan targets a nature exposure draft for Q4 2026, with staff signalling a draft in the October window. Board approval requires a quorum vote at the October meeting; slippage to November or December is the main risk given prior ISSB timetable slips. ISSB has a strong record of hitting published milestones, but nature work is newer and depends on TNFP alignment, so odds sit below a routine standard's base rate.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 62% — ISSB's nature/biodiversity project timeline has slipped repeatedly; one month left is tight but not impossible. ISSB's work plan originally targeted 2025 for the nature exposure draft, then pushed to 2026; the board has a pattern of 6–12 month delays on complex topics. The IFRS Foundation's 2025 work plan listed the nature project as 'in progress' with no firm date, and board meeting agendas through mid-2026 showed redeliberation still… A one-month window (Oct 2026) is narrow given that exposure drafts typically require a board vote and 2–4 weeks of administrative posting; a slip into November is the…

The ISSB publishes its nature exposure draft by 31 October 2026.

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