Nature & Oceans predictions
8 dated questions on ice, species, conservation, reefs — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. One has since passed its deadline and been graded against cited sources.
- forecasts
- 8
- average odds
- 54%
- settled
- 1
- came true
- 0%
1W
3 Nov 2026
Negotiators reach a final biodiversity agreement at COP17 in Yerevan by 30 October 2026.
51%
AI
1M
16 Nov 2026
Participating nations submit revised biodiversity plans at COP17 to meet 2030 targets.
51%
AI
1M
8 Nov 2026
The 2026 UN Biodiversity Conference (COP17) convenes in Yerevan on October 19, 2026.
93%
AI
1M
6 Nov 2026
The ISSB publishes its nature exposure draft by 31 October 2026.
62%
AI
50Y
19 Sept 2076
The Amazon rainforest crosses a tipping point into widespread savanna degradation before 2050.
25%
AI
1Y
27 Sept 2027
The U.S. Department of Agriculture finalizes the repeal of the Roadless Area Conservation Rule.
48%
AI
50Y
11 Sept 2076
Cumulative deforestation reaches 40% of the original Amazon rainforest biome before 2050.
13%
AI
1W
25 Sept 2026
The USDA public comment period on repealing the Roadless Area Conservation Rule closes on 21 September 2026.✗ didn't
92%
AI
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