The next UK monthly CPI print shows an increase in the annual inflation rate.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 62% by 9 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

62% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-09.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — The October CPI print hinges on Ofgem's 10% energy price cap increase outpacing year-ago monthly base effects. ONS publishes October CPI on November 20, incorporating Ofgem's standard tariff hike that mechanically adds ~0.2-0.4pp to annual CPI. September's 1.7% print fell below target mainly due to fuel drag, leaving unfavorable base effects compared to last October's flat month. A sharper-than-expected plunge in volatile services inflation or airfares is the only plausible spoiler to an annual rate uptick.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 58% — Hinges on whether energy/food base effects push CPI up again in the next ONS release amid BoE's rising trajectory forecast. BoE projects inflation rising toward 5% by mid-2026, implying sequential increases are more likely than not in this window. UK CPI has shown a persistent upward trend through 2025 due to utility price resets and sticky services inflation. A surprise downside print (e.g., from falling fuel prices or stronger base effects) could reverse the trend and lower this probability.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 61% — The October CPI release is likely to reflect the BoE’s forecast upswing, but monthly annual-rate moves remain noisy. ONS must publish October 2026 CPI on 9 December, with the annual rate exceeding September’s 3.5%. Annual CPI rises in a given month are near a 50% base rate; energy and administered-price effects raise this case modestly. A softer October energy comparison or broad goods-price disinflation would most materially lower the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — Oct 2026 CPI YoY must exceed September's 3.5% on the mid-Nov ONS release. ONS publishes the October figure around 18-19 Nov; BoE's path from 3.5% toward 5% by mid-2027 implies a modest sequential rise. UK monthly CPI YoY changes have a ~55% chance of rising in a gentle uptrend, but energy/food volatility keeps it well below 80. A sharp drop in petrol or a large base-effect would most change the call.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — Whether October's CPI, due 18 Nov, tops September's 3.5% — driven by energy base effects and food. Ofgem's October price cap rose ~2%, and last October's low base drops out, mechanically lifting the annual rate. The MPC's Nov forecast already pencils inflation climbing toward 5%, so the committee expects this print up, not down. Base rate: monthly CPI direction is sticky, but when the BoE flags a near-term rise the next print usually confirms it.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 74% — BoE's own forecast path from 3.5% toward 5% makes a month-on-month rise likely, but base effects can still produce a one-month dip. The BoE explicitly projects inflation rising from September's 3.5% toward 5% by mid-2027, so the October print is expected to be on that upward path. A one-month decline is possible if October 2025 had an unusually high monthly reading creating an unfavorable base effect, or if energy prices dropped sharply. Historically, when a central bank signals a rising inflation trajectory, the very next print confirms it roughly 75% of the time; a surprise energy subsidy or price cap…

The next UK monthly CPI print shows an increase in the annual inflation rate.

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