The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official cash rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 64% by 1 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

64% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 78% — The decision turns on whether the MPC prioritizes lingering domestic nontradable inflation over recent growth softness. With the meeting four days away, market pricing and committee rhetoric already strongly lean toward a 25 bps hike. Historical precedents show central banks rarely pivot away from pre-communicated tightening inside a one-week horizon. A sudden collapse in Q3 employment indicators or an explicit emergency dovish consensus leak would be needed to pause.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 8% — This hinges on whether NZ inflation has reaccelerated sharply enough by October 2026 to force a hike after a cutting cycle. RBNZ has been in an easing cycle through 2024-2025 with OCR cuts dominating; reversing to a hike requires a clear inflation surprise. Base rate for a single-meeting hike after a prolonged cutting cycle is low, historically under 10% absent a shock. A major upside inflation surprise or currency collapse in the weeks before 29 Oct 2026 would be the key thing that could flip this.

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GPT (OpenAI): 57% — It turns on whether the November Monetary Policy Statement sees inflation persistence as requiring immediate extra restraint. The Monetary Policy Committee must vote for a rise on 29 October, with no parliamentary or operational hurdle. At late-cycle policy meetings, a hold is common while forecasts are reassessed, but stated expectations of further tightening lift odds above base rate. A fresh inflation or labour-market downside surprise before the meeting, or softer RBNZ projections, would materially favor a hold.

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Grok (xAI): 71% — Whether the OCR hike already priced for 29 Oct is delivered or paused on last-minute data. RBNZ must decide by the 29 Oct meeting; with four days left, only a CPI or labour surprise can reverse a hike already in market pricing. Hikes occur in ~70% of tightening-cycle meetings when inflation is described as persistent; this sits near that base rate. A weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI print released before the meeting would most change the call toward a hold.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 34% — It hinges on whether September-quarter CPI, due 17 October, forced the RBNZ's hand at a meeting it had already signalled as live. The RBNZ's August MPS flagged the OCR path with hikes possible, but the 29 October decision needs a majority of the Monetary Policy Committee, not just a hawkish… September-quarter CPI lands 17 October; if annual inflation printed above 3.5% with non-tradable inflation sticky, a 25bp hike to 3.25% becomes the base case rather than… Precedent: the RBNZ has hiked at October reviews before (2014, 2021), but it also skipped when data softened, so a sub-3% core print would flip this to a hold and cut my…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 74% — Markets pricing a hike 4 days out is strong but not certain; RBNZ has surprised before on inflation data revisions. When markets firmly price a central bank hike within a week of the meeting, follow-through historically runs ~80-85%, but the RBNZ has a record of occasional surprises. The OCR trajectory through 2025 was easing; a reversal to tightening by late 2026 requires a credible inflation re-acceleration narrative, which the context asserts but… A surprise dovish hold or cut would most likely come from a sudden deterioration in growth or employment data released in the final days before the meeting.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official cash rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada raises its policy interest rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises its inflation forecasts in its 30 October 2026 outlook report.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 30 October 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its 29 October 2026 meeting.