The Trump administration formally rescinds the Biden-era rule limiting methane emissions from oil and gas drilling.

• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  The EPA has already proposed the repeal; the only question is whether the final rule clears OMB and the Federal Register before the deadline.

  • EPA proposed rescinding the 2024 methane rule in 2025 and the administration has made deregulation a stated priority, so the political will is not in doubt.
  • The main friction is procedural: OMB review, public comment, and possible litigation delays, but a two-year window is ample for a rule this high-profile.
  • Base rate for an administration finalizing a proposed rollback of a predecessor's environmental rule within two years is high, above 80%, and this case sits above it…

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 2 Nov 2026
  88%
• G
  GeminiGoogle

  Rescission hinges on EPA completing APA notice-and-comment rulemaking before November 2027, backed by strong executive prioritization.

  • EPA under Trump began rollbacks immediately; typical major APA rule rescissions take 18-24 months, fitting cleanly in this window.
  • Congressional Review Act window lapsed, so EPA must finalize a replacement or rescission rule in the Federal Register.
  • Procedural delays or preliminary court injunctions freezing EPA rulemaking schedule are the main risk preventing timely publication.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 2 Nov 2026
  81%
• G
  GPTOpenAI

  EPA must complete APA notice-and-comment rulemaking and publish a final rescission before November 2027.

  • Trump policy direction and industry pressure favor rollback, but an executive statement cannot erase a codified EPA rule.
  • EPA first needs a proposed rule, a defensible record, comment review, and Federal Register finalization; this often takes 12–24 months.
  • Court stays, statutory methane-fee constraints, or EPA choosing revision over full repeal would most reduce the chance.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 2 Nov 2026
  76%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  Turns on whether EPA completes notice-and-comment rescission and publishes a final rule in the Federal Register within the window.

  • EPA's methane rescission would follow standard APA rulemaking (~12-24 months); the administration has had ~22 months already and likely has a proposed rule out or…
  • Trump's first term completed multiple Obama-era energy rule rescissions via this same process, establishing a workable template and institutional memory at EPA.
  • Main downside risk is a court stay or the administration pivoting to a replacement rule rather than clean rescission, which would not satisfy the 'formally rescinds'…

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 2 Nov 2026
  74%
• G
  GrokxAI

  EPA finishing APA repeal of the 2024 methane NSPS/EG and publishing it in the FR.

  • Trump EPA started the rollback in 2025; notice-and-comment plus OIRA typically takes 12-24 months, leaving a 2026-27 window.
  • First-term Trump completed most major environmental rollbacks despite suits, so this sits near that ~70% base.
  • A still-pending proposal or court stay would drop odds; an already-issued NPRM would raise them.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 2 Nov 2026
  72%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Hinges on EPA completing rulemaking and surviving legal/procedural hurdles before Nov 2027.

  • EPA under Trump has already signaled intent to repeal/replace methane rules via proposed rulemaking announced in 2025.
  • Formal rescission requires notice-and-comment rulemaking taking 12-24 months, plus possible litigation delays, but the deadline gives ample runway.
  • Base rate for deregulatory agendas completing major rule repeals within a full term is moderate-high given political priority and EPA resources devoted to it.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 2 Nov 2026
  62%

6 of 6 models answered · 26 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.