The Trump administration submits draft legislation legally defining 'Super Intelligence' by late November 2026.
Following a September 29 executive order rebranding AI across federal agencies, the White House set a 60-day window to introduce formal statutory definitions.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 25%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 74% and Claude at 10%, 64 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 4 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
The White House has tied its policy timeline to a self-imposed 60-day deadline with clear agency ownership to draft the bill.
- OSTP and OMB face minimal bureaucratic resistance to transmitting White House-sponsored draft legislation to allied lawmakers.
- Executive-prompted statutory templates historically meet their 60-day deadlines about 70-75% of the time when priorities align.
- Interagency definitional disputes or congressional sponsor reluctance could push formal submission past late November into 2027.
74% -
GrokxAI
WH follow-through on its own 60-day statutory-definition deadline from the 29 Sep EO.
- OMB/legislative affairs must transmit a bill to Congress by ~28 Nov; that is a routine White House action, not a vote.
- Administrations miss self-imposed drafting windows ~40% of the time, but a fresh EO plus public 60-day clock raise the odds above that base.
- A competing crisis or internal fight over the exact term ‘Super Intelligence’ would most drop the probability.
62% -
QwenAlibaba
Executive orders rarely produce actual legislation within 60 days; Congress must act, and AI definitions remain contested.
- The EO's 60-day window (from Sept 29) expires around Nov 28, but submitting draft legislation requires OMB/DOJ review plus congressional liaison—timelines that…
- The term 'Super Intelligence' has no settled legal or technical definition; interagency disagreement between NIST, OSTP, and Commerce over threshold criteria would stall…
- Base rate for EO-mandated legislative drafts arriving on schedule is low (~20-30%); a narrow window with a novel, undefined term pushes this below that, though Trump's…
31% -
GPTOpenAI
This hinges on whether the White House actually converts an internal AI rebranding directive into a public legislative package.
- A White House draft can be produced without Congress, but 60-day EO deadlines often yield reports or guidance rather than bill text.
- No established U.S. legal term or agency framework uses “Super Intelligence,” making interagency clearance and statutory drafting harder by late November.
- Published OMB/OSTP legislative language or a transmittal to Congress before November 30 would sharply raise the odds.
18% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether the White House actually transmits bill text to Congress, not on the EO's 60-day rhetoric.
- The Sept 29 EO set a 60-day clock ending ~Nov 28, but executive orders cannot compel Congress to receive or act on draft text.
- No named sponsor, committee referral, or OMB clearance has surfaced in the week since, and past AI EOs (2023, 2025) produced frameworks, not transmitted bills.
- Base rate for White House-drafted AI definitions reaching Congress within 60 days is near zero; the one thing that would change my mind is an OMB/OSTP statement naming a…
12% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether OMB/OSTP actually draft and submit legal text to Congress within the 60-day window.
- Executive orders setting 60-day deadlines frequently slip, especially for novel statutory definitions requiring interagency coordination.
- No evidence yet of legislative drafting process underway, and defining 'Super Intelligence' legally is conceptually contested and politically fraught.
- A concrete bill text or formal submission to Congress by late November would be the clearest signal this resolves yes.
10%
6 of 6 models answered · 64 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 6 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.