The U.K., France, and Canada formally implement new trade restrictions on Israel.
Allied governments announced impending trade curbs in response to West Bank settlement growth. Verification requires official enactment of the measures into national law or regulation.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 23%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 61% and Grok at 17%, 44 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Announced curbs make enactment likely, but three separate governments must complete legal implementation.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202661% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
UK, France, Canada all announced measures; UK and Canada already moving, France slower, but 15 months is ample.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202655% -
GeminiGoogle
Requires all three to enact formal curbs within 3 months; EU/bilateral legal hurdles make delays very likely.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202623% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Diplomatic threats often stall in coordination; formal joint enactment across 3 states is slow
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
QwenAlibaba
Announcements ≠ enactment; legislative/regulatory processes in 3 countries within 3 months is tight.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
GrokxAI
All three need statutes/regs in ~90 days; announcements lag enactment amid legal/WTO and calendar hurdles.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202617%
6 of 6 models answered · 44 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.