The UN carbon market rule-making body adopts new rules for the crediting mechanism by 9 October 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 72% by 14 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

72% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-14.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 78% — Adoption turns on the Supervisory Body reaching consensus on methodology standards before the Bonn session closes on October 9. With the meeting already underway as of October 7, the board faces heavy pressure to finalize Article 6.4 rules ahead of COP31. Draft texts typically pass in late plenary sessions, though last-minute deadlocks on removals occasionally defer reports past deadline. A formal pushback to an extraordinary intersessional meeting is the primary risk that would prevent adoption by October 9.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 72% — Hinges on whether the Bonn Supervisory Body session finalizes and formally adopts the pending rules by 9 Oct 2026. Article 6.4 Supervisory Body has steadily advanced methodology/removal rules since 2024 with incremental adoptions at each session, showing a pattern of meeting… Final adoption requires consensus among Supervisory Body members during the Bonn session itself, which is a short, high-pressure window that could slip to a later… A major sticking point (e.g., removals accounting or authorization rules) causing deferral to the next meeting would be the key risk to a negative outcome.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 76% — It turns on whether the Bonn session can close remaining technical text and record consensus in its final report. The Article 6.4 Supervisory Body itself can adopt standards without COP approval, and it is already convened in Bonn. Such bodies commonly defer disputed methodology details, but framework packages near a scheduled close have a strong completion rate. A visible deadlock over removals, additionality, or registry rules by 9 October would sharply lower the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 32% — SBM Bonn session must close with adopted framework text in the 9 Oct final report. Article 6.4 SBM has missed successive methodology and standard deadlines since 2024; COP29/30 left core gaps. Session is live 7 Oct with two days for consensus on additionality, leakage and baselines. A chair’s compromise text would lift odds; deadlock on one remaining methodology would prevent adoption.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 72% — Whether the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body's Bonn session closes with framework rules formally adopted in its final report. The Supervisory Body itself decides, and its Bonn session runs through 9 October, so adoption is possible within days if consensus holds. Base rate favors this: the body has already adopted standards, methodologies, and the appeals procedure across 2023-2025 sessions, clearing most contested ground. The main blocker is a handful of states resisting carbon-removal and corresponding-adjustment language; a formal objection or deferral to COP31 would drop this sharply.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 71% — The Supervisory Body has been iterating on crediting methodology rules for years; the question is whether consensus holds at this session. The Article 6.4 Supervisory Body has met repeatedly since 2022 but repeatedly deferred contentious crediting methodology decisions, so base rate for 'final adoption' at… The session is already underway in Bonn with a 9 October deadline, meaning procedural momentum and political pressure from COP30 (November 2025) create urgency, but… A single delegation withholding consensus on removals crediting or corresponding adjustments would stall adoption; this has happened at prior sessions, making a clean…

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