▢ POLICY & LAW 1 YEAR HORIZON RESOLVES 14 SEPT 2027 · in 11mo

The United Kingdom, France, and Canada implement new trade restrictions on Israel over West Bank settlement expansion.

A coalition of 12 nations announced plans for trade restrictions targeting Israel over settlements. It resolves as yes when formal trade measures or sanctions are legally enacted by the named states.

Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 22%.

They broadly agree, 15 points between GPT at 29% and Gemini at 14%.

Nothing is settled until 14 Sept 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • GPTOpenAI

    Canada and France may act, but unanimous formal UK-France-Canada measures within a year is a high bar.

    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 2026
    29%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    Governments announced intent but formal legal enactment across all three within a year is slow and politically fraught

    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    22%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    UK/France/Canada have only signaled reviews; EU-level action stalled, and no sanctions bill is near passage in any of the three.

    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    22%
  • GeminiGoogle

    France cannot unilaterally alter trade policy outside EU consensus, which pro-Israel members routinely block.

    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    14%
  • GrokxAI
    no answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    –
  • QwenAlibaba
    no answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    –

4 of 6 models answered · 15 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.