The United States and Iran reach a formal negotiated settlement.

• G
  GrokxAI

  A US president and Khamenei both concluding a deal beats confrontation inside 12 months.

  • Both sides must lock sequencing of sanctions relief versus nuclear/missile curbs plus security guarantees; deadlock plus bombing threats make that toxic.
  • JCPOA needed years of talks without strike threats; no comparable US-Iran settlement has closed in a 12-month window since 2015.
  • A sudden Iranian economic collapse or a limited strike both sides then rush to de-escalate would most shift the odds.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 7 Oct 2026
  19%
• G
  GPTOpenAI

  A durable deal requires Tehran and Washington to trade nuclear limits for credible sanctions relief and security assurances.

  • The U.S. president, Congress on sanctions, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and the IAEA would all need to accept a verifiable package.
  • The 2015 JCPOA shows agreement is possible, but its collapse and post-2023 regional conflict make a formal settlement harder than renewal.
  • Odds would rise sharply if direct U.S.-Iran talks produce an interim nuclear freeze and IAEA access before mid-2027.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 7 Oct 2026
  18%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Whether Tehran and Washington bridge enrichment-rights and sanctions-relief gaps before military escalation forecloses diplomacy.

  • Talks have stalled repeatedly since 2025 over sequencing of sanctions relief versus enrichment limits, with no breakthrough despite multiple rounds.
  • Active bombing threats and snapback sanctions create a narrow, fragile window; any strike or major provocation likely ends negotiations for the period.
  • A 'formal negotiated settlement' is a high bar (not interim deal or ceasefire), and historically US-Iran relations have never produced one since 1979.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 7 Oct 2026
  12%
• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  A formal US-Iran settlement needs a nuclear framework both capitals can sell; stalled sequencing makes that a long shot in 12 months.

  • Any deal requires the White House and Iran's Supreme Council to accept phased sanctions relief against nuclear limits, and neither has budged since 2025 talks froze.
  • The 2015 JCPOA took 20 months of secret bilateral talks plus P5+1 cover; today's format lacks that channel and has active bombing threats raising the cost of concessions.
  • Base rate for comprehensive US-Iran settlements in any 12-month window is near zero outside 2015, so 12% reflects only a narrow chance of a crisis-driven interim…

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 7 Oct 2026
  12%
• G
  GeminiGoogle

  Entrenched regional proxy conflict and unbridgeable domestic vetoes in both Washington and Tehran preclude formal bilateral accords.

  • A formal settlement requires US Senate treaty approval or durable sanctions relief that no US coalition will grant Tehran by 2027.
  • Iran's near-breakout enrichment and regional missile posture cannot be reconciled while active military threats continue.
  • Bilateral base rates for comprehensive US-Iran pacts are near zero since 1979, with even the JCPOA surviving only three years.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 7 Oct 2026
  8%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  Iran's regime survival calculus and US domestic politics both block the sequencing compromise needed for a formal deal.

  • JCPOA took 20 months of active diplomacy with aligned leadership; today neither side's political conditions permit the concessions required.
  • A formal settlement requires Iran to accept verifiable nuclear limits and the US to offer sanctions relief with durability guarantees—neither Khamenei's succession…
  • The one development that would shift this: a dramatic change in Iranian leadership or a US military strike that forces Tehran to negotiate from weakness.

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 7 Oct 2026
  7%

6 of 6 models answered · 12 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.