The US median existing home sales price drops by at least 15% from its peak before 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 11% by 10 Nov 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

11% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-11-10.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 12% — A 15% nominal national price drop requires severe forced selling and surging unemployment that structural supply deficits prevent. Outside the 2008 GFC, US median home prices have essentially never experienced a national 15% nominal peak-to-trough decline. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage lock-in effect keeps inventory low, shielding median prices from massive declines without mass job loss. A sharp economic recession driving national unemployment above 7% would quickly push the probability toward 40%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 8% — Needs a severe nominal price collapse, which historically requires a credit crisis or supply glut, not just high rates. Nominal median home price 15% drops are rare outside 2008-style credit crises; 2006-2012 is the only modern precedent. Current market has locked-in low mortgage rates reducing forced selling, tight inventory, and demographic demand supporting prices. A sharp rise in unemployment or new mortgage credit crunch before 2028 would be the main trigger that could change this.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 31% — A 15% nominal national median-price decline likely needs recession-driven job losses plus materially more forced selling. NAR’s median existing-home price fell about 13% peak-to-trough in 2006–11, the main modern precedent for this threshold. Fed rates and labor-market deterioration must loosen supply or force sales before late 2029; low locked-in mortgages restrain listings. I would raise this sharply if unemployment climbs above 6% with mortgage delinquencies and inventory rising together.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 12% — A 2027 recession plus inventory surge must force NAR median 15% below the 2022-26 peak. NAR median survived the 2022-23 rate shock with only a 5-8% peak-to-trough; 15% requires 2008-scale distress. Fed would need to stay tight into a recession through 2027, which is not the base case. Inventory stays historically tight; only a large forced-sale wave would clear the hurdle.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 9% — Needs a 15% NAR median price collapse within ~2 years, which requires a severe recession plus mass distressed selling. Peak NAR median was ~$426k in mid-2025; a 15% drop means roughly $362k, a level last seen in early 2021. Existing-home prices are sticky: sellers with sub-4% mortgages simply delist rather than cut, and inventory stays historically tight. The 2008 precedent took a housing bust plus financial crisis; today's mortgage delinquency rate is near multi-decade lows, so a trigger is missing.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 9% — A 15% nominal drop in ~14 months requires a demand shock severe enough to overwhelm the lock-in supply constraint. The lock-in effect keeps inventory historically low; even in 2022's rate shock, NAR median fell only ~7% before rebounding. The only modern 15%+ nominal decline (2006–2012) took ~4 years and required a subprime credit collapse; current underwriting is far tighter. A severe recession with unemployment above 8% would be the main catalyst to change this, but even then the timeline is compressed.

The US median existing home sales price drops by at least 15% from its peak before 2028.

US national median home prices fall year-over-year by the end of 2027.

The US Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posts positive year-over-year growth through 2027.

California median existing single-family home prices decline year-over-year in 2027.

US home prices continue to rise quarter-over-quarter through the first half of 2027.