The US Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the Illinois Protect Illinois Communities Act (PICA) before July 2027.

• G
  GPTOpenAI

  The odds hinge on whether the Seventh Circuit issues a merits judgment soon enough for a 2026–27 cert petition.

  • The Seventh Circuit must first decide the consolidated PICA appeals; a final judgment by early 2027 permits Supreme Court review.
  • Gun-ban challenges have reached the Court repeatedly after Bruen, but cert grants and merits decisions within one Term are not routine.
  • A Seventh Circuit ruling by December 2026, especially creating a circuit split, would materially raise the chance of a June 2027 decision.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 20 Sept 2026
  63%
• G
  GeminiGoogle

  SCOTUS must grant cert by early 2027 to decide the merits before July 2027, but court delay or GVRs could push it past the window.

  • The 7th Circuit or interlocutory appeals must conclude final judgments quickly enough to make the 2026-2027 SCOTUS docket.
  • Cert base rates for specific state gun bans are low, and the Court frequently holds petitions pending other foundational 2A cases.
  • A clean circuit split on assault weapon bans before December 2026 would dramatically increase the likelihood of review.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 20 Sept 2026
  38%
• G
  GrokxAI

  SCOTUS must grant cert by early 2027 on a live PICA appeal to decide it in OT 2026.

  • 7th Circuit merits ruling plus cert petition must be on file by ~Nov 2026 for a spring argument.
  • Court hears 1-2 Second Amendment cases per term; AWB petitions have sat while Rahimi/Cargill occupied the docket.
  • A deepening circuit split or en-banc denial would most raise the odds of a grant.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 20 Sept 2026
  38%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  Turns on whether the 7th Circuit issues a ruling creating a circuit split that SCOTUS feels compelled to resolve by end of OT2026.

  • The 7th Circuit heard oral arguments in Barnett v. Raoul in late 2024 but has not yet ruled; a decision could come any month, and SCOTUS would need to grant cert and…
  • SCOTUS granted cert in VanDerStok v. ATF (bump stock case) partly because of a circuit split, but PICA cases involve a different legal question (assault weapons bans…
  • If the 7th Circuit rules by early 2026 creating a split with other circuits (e.g., the 4th Circuit's Bianchi ruling upholding Maryland's ban), cert grant by fall 2026…

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 20 Sept 2026
  34%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Hinges on whether SCOTUS grants cert in Barnett/Bevis or a similar PICA case and issues a merits ruling by mid-2027.

  • 7th Circuit upheld PICA in Bevis; a cert petition would need to be granted likely in the 2026-27 term to reach decision by July 2027.
  • SCOTUS has repeatedly denied cert on assault weapon bans (e.g., Highland Park, Bianchi) despite circuit splits, suggesting reluctance to take this issue now.
  • A grant of cert with expedited briefing and argument by fall 2026 leading to a June 2027 decision is plausible but not yet confirmed as of today.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 20 Sept 2026
  18%
• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  SCOTUS review turns on the Seventh Circuit ruling first, and that ruling isn't even out yet.

  • The Seventh Circuit hasn't decided the PICA appeal; until it does, no cert petition exists and SCOTUS cannot grant review.
  • Even a fast loss below means a petition, briefing, and conference pushing any merits ruling past mid-2027.
  • SCOTUS typically takes 12-18 months from cert grant to decision; a grant by early 2027 is the absolute floor here.

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 20 Sept 2026
  12%

6 of 6 models answered · 51 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.