The White House extends the Jones Act waiver beyond its mid-November 2026 deadline.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 29% by 14 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

29% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-14.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — Jones Act waivers under 46 U.S.C. 501 face intense legal constraints and sustained opposition from domestic maritime unions and bipartisan congressional caucuses. Historically, waivers granted during fuel crises (such as after Hurricanes Katrina or Fiona) are strictly time-limited and allowed to lapse as soon as acute supply disruptions soften or U.S.-flagged vessels become available. The Department of Homeland Security must continuously certify that qualified domestic tonnage is unavailable, a high bar that the Maritime Administration rarely re-approves sequentially. A sudden closure of major maritime transit routes or a secondary spike in Gulf refining outages would be the primary catalyst…

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 30% — This requires a fresh presidential or DHS/DOT action renewing a waiver before or around mid-November 2026. Jones Act waivers historically are typically short-term and tied to specific emergency conditions (e.g., hurricanes, fuel shortages); administrations often let them lapse once the acute shortage eases rather than proactively extending them. Without evidence that the underlying regional conflict or energy constraint persists at crisis levels into Q4 2026, the default outcome is non-renewal. Extension would require continued high shipping costs or supply disruption plus lobbying from refiners/utilities. Absent stronger signals of ongoing energy stress, I lean toward the waiver lapsing rat…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 57% — A roughly two-month decision window favors an administrative extension if the energy disruption that justified the waiver remains active: the White House or a delegated department can publish an order or notice without Congress. Emergency transport and energy waivers are often renewed when supply constraints persist, but politically salient Jones Act relief also draws organized maritime-labor and domestic-shipping opposition. The key swing is whether regional conflict and resulting fuel or shipping shortages are still materially elevating prices in late October; a visible normalization would make expiration more likely.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Jones Act waivers are granted only for acute, short-lived emergencies and almost never rolled over once the initial window expires; the existing mid-November 2026 sunset already stretches that precedent. Extension requires a public EO or MARAD notice before mid-November, which the White House will issue only if regional energy shortages remain severe enough to outweigh union and congressional opposition. Two months of remaining runway plus the political cost of another waiver put the base rate well below 50. The single development that would flip the call is a sudden, documented spike in East-Coast or Gulf refined-product inventories that cannot be met by Jones-compliant tonnage.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Jones Act waivers are historically rare and short — the 2017 Puerto Rico and 2022 Puerto Rico waivers both lapsed within days-to-weeks, and DHS has repeatedly declined to renew them under shipping-lobby pressure. A mid-November 2026 deadline set amid a regional conflict is the kind of emergency action that typically gets allowed to expire once the acute price spike fades, and by December the political cost of renewal (Maritime unions, domestic shipbuilders) outweighs the benefit. The main thing that would flip this is a sustained supply shock keeping fuel prices elevated into November; absent that, expect quiet non-renewal.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 62% — Jones Act waivers are historically rare and politically costly, but the stated context—regional conflict driving energy constraints—mirrors the 2022 and 2017 precedents where waivers were issued and then extended or allowed to lapse based on supply conditions. The key actor is the President or DHS Secretary, who can renew via executive order or notice with minimal legislative friction. If energy prices remain elevated or supply disruptions persist into November, the political incentive to extend is strong; if conditions normalize, letting it expire is the easier path. The deciding factor will be whether the underlying conflict and its energy-market effects are still acute by early November 2…

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