The WMO reports that El Niño conditions continue through February 2027.
The WMO indicated a near 100% chance of El Niño persisting into early 2027. Verification relies on WMO ENSO update bulletins confirming active El Niño status through February 2027.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 77%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 83% and Claude at 6%, 77 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Mar 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
WMO models see strong persistence into early 2027, with winter peak favoring active status through February.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202683% -
GPTOpenAI
A near-certain WMO outlook strongly favors persistence, though ENSO forecasts can miss timing or decay early.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
GrokxAI
WMO already ~100% into early 2027; typical winter persistence, modest spring-decay risk
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
QwenAlibaba
El Niño persistence is high but not certain; WMO near-100% claim may shift as models update over 5 months.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
WMO near-100% call is for persistence into early 2027, not necessarily through Feb; spring transitions are common.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202655% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No current El Niño; ENSO forecasts don't extend confidently ~18 months out, and cycles typically last under a year.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20266%
6 of 6 models answered · 77 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.