Total global nuclear electricity generation in 2028 exceeds its 2021 peak.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 72% by 3 Oct 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

72% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-10-03.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — Surpassing the 2021 peak depends purely on China's massive pipeline coming online alongside France's fleet recovery. IEA projections had global nuclear generation breaking records by 2025, making 2028 an easy clearance barring systemic outages. China alone is adding roughly 6 to 8 gigawatts annually through 2028, fully compensating for past German plant retirements. Massive simultaneous safety shutdowns across the French or American fleets would be required to depress output below 2021 levels.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 72% — Depends on China/India new reactor ramp plus French/Japanese restarts offsetting old plant retirements by 2028. IEA projects nuclear generation surpassing 2021 record around 2025-2026 due to China additions, French fleet recovery, and Japanese restarts. Major new capacity (China ~6-8 GW/year, India, UAE, South Korea) continues coming online through 2028 with long construction lead times already locked in. Risk is mainly downside shocks: a major outage, geopolitical disruption to French/Japanese fleets, or unexpected early retirements in US/Europe.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 71% — China’s reactor buildout and French fleet recovery must outweigh retirements and outages by 2028. The IAEA’s recent high-case outlooks put global nuclear output above the 2021 record before 2030, with capacity additions led by China. China, India, Korea and others have many units already under construction, while most new Western projects cannot affect 2028 output. A major French/Japanese outage wave or accelerated closures in Europe would cut this sharply; sustained Chinese commissioning would raise it.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 71% — Net capacity additions plus French CF recovery must lift output ~2% above the 2021 high by calendar 2028. China, India and UAE will add 15-25 GW 2026-28 while Western retirements slow after Germany/Belgium exits. 2023-24 generation already sat near 2,600 TWh, so only a modest further rise is required. IEA/WNA trajectories imply ~2,800 TWh by 2030; a 2028 miss would need large unplanned outages.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — It hinges on whether Japan's restarts and China's buildout outrun French reactor outages and German closures by 2028. Japan had 33 operable reactors but only ~13 running in 2024; each restart adds ~7 TWh, and Kansai/Kyushu units are queued through 2027. China adds ~2-3 GW yearly (each ~8 TWh), but France's corrosion repairs cut ~30 TWh in 2022-23 and EDF's 2025 output is still below 2021. Global output hit ~2,686 TWh in 2024 per IAEA, already above 2021, so the base rate favors exceeding; a French fleet relapse or Japanese court injunction would flip it.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — China's ~30 reactors under construction plus restarts in Japan and France must offset aging fleet retirements. China adds ~8-10 GW net new capacity per year through 2028, contributing roughly 60-80 TWh annually; Japan has restarted 14 reactors with more approvals pending, adding… France's 2021 output was already near its fleet's capability (~379 TWh); EDF's corrosion issues are resolved but aging reactors cap upside, so France alone won't bridge… The key risk is delays in Chinese commissioning or slower-than-expected Japanese restarts; if China slips 2-3 years on its pipeline, the 2028 total could land at…

Total global nuclear electricity generation in 2028 exceeds its 2021 peak.

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