U.S. federal civilian agencies complete the removal of DeepSeek products from IT systems pursuant to the DHS order.
The Department of Homeland Security published a binding order on 20 October 2026 requiring federal civilian agencies to purge DeepSeek products and halt new purchases.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 73%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 78% and Claude at 27%, 51 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 24 Apr 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
Compliance hinges on whether CISA formally validates full agency attestation before the six-month deadline.
- CISA binding directives like the 2017 Kaspersky ban standardly mandate 90-day removal, leaving six months ample time.
- Decoupling software libraries and shadow IT in sprawling agencies like HHS historically leaves small tail-end delays.
- A CISA extension granted for embedded API dependencies would drop the odds below 50.
78% -
GPTOpenAI
Most civilian agencies can remove a named software vendor within six months, but inventories and embedded components slow closure.
- Agency CIOs must identify, uninstall, attest, and stop procurement under DHS’s 20 October binding operational directive.
- Comparable federal software bans are largely executed within months, though complete enterprise certification often exposes unmanaged endpoints.
- Odds would rise sharply if DHS sets a firm reporting deadline and centralized verification; contractor-hosted tools are the main lag risk.
78% -
QwenAlibaba
Six months is generous for a removal task, but 'complete' across all civilian agencies is a high bar with inevitable stragglers.
- BOD precedent (TikTok 2023, Kaspersky 2017) shows DHS removal orders achieve >90% agency compliance within 6 months, but rarely 100% on first pass.
- DeepSeek removal is technically simple—block endpoints, revoke API keys—unlike Log4j patching, so the bottleneck is bureaucratic follow-through, not engineering.
- A single agency with embedded research workflows or a disputed definition of 'products' could delay formal DHS certification of full compliance past April 24.
74% -
GrokxAI
Whether every civilian agency finishes the purge before the order’s implied ~180-day window.
- DHS binding orders on Chinese software (Kaspersky 2017, TikTok 2023) typically set 90–180-day clocks; 24 Apr 2027 is six months after 20 Oct.
- Civilian agencies already treat DeepSeek as high-risk, so installed base is small and new-purchase halt is immediate.
- A few lagging small agencies or contractor-hosted instances historically miss full-removal attestations, pulling the all-agencies bar below 80.
72% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether every civilian agency certifies a full purge by January, or stragglers push completion past April.
- OMB/DHS set a 90-day purge clock, putting the deadline near 18 January 2027, well inside the April 24 resolution window.
- Agencies already removed TikTok and Kaspersky under similar orders, but those took 6-12 months and some agencies lagged past deadlines.
- Full completion is unlikely: CISA reporting is self-attested, and small agencies with shadow AI use will miss the January date, pushing partial compliance past April.
34% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on agencies hitting a hard DHS deadline with full compliance across sprawling, decentralized federal IT inventories.
- Federal-wide compliance directives (e.g. BOD mandates) routinely see partial completion; full removal across all agencies by deadline is rare without extensions.
- Agencies must act now but discovery of all DeepSeek instances (shadow IT, APIs, embedded tools) across hundreds of systems is logistically hard within ~6 months.
- A GAO or IG report confirming near-total compliance, or DHS granting waivers/extensions, would most change this probability either way.
27%
6 of 6 models answered · 51 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 26 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.