U.S. retail sales decline month-over-month in the next monthly Census Bureau report.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 28% by 1 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

28% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 32% — Nominal retail spending rarely contracts outright without sharp gas price drops or auto sales pullbacks. Historically, month-over-month nominal retail sales contract in roughly 25-30% of Census releases during economic expansions. Real consumer momentum and typical pre-holiday inventory build in October data favor flat-to-positive nominal gains. A sharp decline in retail gasoline prices or weaker motor vehicle unit sales would be the primary triggers to push it negative.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 28% — Hinges on whether holiday-season spending data and government shutdown timing produce a rare negative month print. Monthly retail sales have declined outright in only about 1 in 4 months over the past few years given resilient consumer spending. Census Bureau report timing has been disrupted by shutdowns, adding uncertainty to whether a clean comparable report is even released by Dec 1. A negative surprise would require either a sharp pullback in discretionary/auto spending or downward data revisions distorting the headline figure.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 28% — Absent a sharp October demand shock, nominal retail sales are more likely to rise modestly than fall in November’s release. Census must report October advance sales around November 16; revisions do not alter the initial resolution. Monthly headline sales have been negative roughly one-quarter to one-third of the time outside recessions, despite resilient consumption. A weak jobs report, government disruption, or abrupt fuel-price spike before the survey period would raise the odds materially.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 32% — Whether the mid-Nov Census advance print for Oct 2026 SA current-dollar sales falls vs Sept. Census posts the advance estimate ~15 Nov; only Oct consumer, auto, and gasoline data can still move it. Last two decades ~33% of months show MoM declines; sticky inflation plus the stated spending resilience put this case a few points below that base. A sharp Oct payroll miss or equity drop would raise the odds most.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether one month of retail sales finally prints negative after a long resilient streak. The October advance report lands mid-November; September retail sales rose 0.2%, so the bar is a single negative print, not a trend. Real spending has grown every month since April 2025 as real wages outpace inflation, and holiday-season October/November prints rarely go negative. A government-shutdown data gap or a weak October jobs report would be the clearest trigger; otherwise I'd need a sharp auto or gasoline sales drop to flip this.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 28% — Base rate of a negative MoM retail print is ~35%, but stated resilience pulls this below average. Historically, ~4 of 12 months show negative MoM retail sales; in resilient-spending regimes that drops to roughly 3. The October report (released ~Nov 15) often dips after September back-to-school strength, but 2026 context flags continued consumer strength. A surprise labor-market shock or sharp equity selloff in early November would be the main catalyst to push this above 40%.

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